Monday, May 6, 2024

Blueprint to Fix Our Educational System

This blog deals solely with free speech.  See my general Education blog for many more ideas.

The students are not the fundamental problem relative to college protests.  It is healthy for young people to be concerned about issues and want to participate.  As was true for the Viet Nam protests when I was in college, most of the participants don’t really know the history or issues involved.  They join the protests to “make a difference” and feel comradeship, liking simplistic slogans.  Ideally, student protest provides an opportunity to engage the students, learn from them and educate them.  (I am aware that many protestors have no interest in discussion.)

The fundamental problem is that our educational system has been slanted for decades.  Over time, products of slanted education become professors and administrators, exacerbating the situation.

Despite being the child of two holocaust survivors and having (distant) relatives killed and abducted by Hamas on October 7th, I do not consider anti-Zionism to constitute anti-Semitism (despite a positive correlation).  Clearly, free speech does not include violence and obstruction, but the boundary of free speech is ambiguous; it is best to allow too much free speech than too little.

The problem is that our universities have applied free speech standards in an unbalanced fashion, supporting “progressive”, “woke” speech, while discouraging, and even punishing, conservative thought relative to gender/sexual issues, politics, economics, etc.  “Diversity” programs have actively stifled diversity in political and economic thought.

Band-aid solutions, such as “safe places for Jews”, do not address the fundamental problem and may allow the problem to fester and spread.

Michael Roth, President of Wesleyan University (Connecticut), a self-labeled liberal, initiated a program to address the root causes of this problem in 2017.  He has been improving the balance of the Wesleyan faculty and, among other things, has emphasized recruitment of ex-veterans, thinking they would add more balance to student attitudes.

I think the following steps can be taken:

Diversifying faculty:  President Roth’s program should be replicated by other schools.  Alas, it is difficult to increase faculty diversity quickly with overwhelming percentages of leftist/liberal professors tenured.

However, administrations can encourage faculty to teach a more balanced curriculum and be more receptive to disparate thoughts.  Campuses and classrooms must be safe places to speak, hear and respond to relevant unpopular thoughts.

Visiting guest professors can be selected to increase the balance of political and economic thought.

Remote classes and/or guest lectures can include conservative professors from other colleges.

Curriculum review can be done without trampling academic freedom.  Faculty who can’t find appropriate diverse views are questionable faculty selections.

A Harvard student was surprised by criticism of pro-Hamas protests.  He said he had been assigned Franz Fanon readings in four different classes and felt he was channeling Fanon’s teachings.

I do not object to including Franz Fanon in college education.  From what I’ve read about them, his writings about the psychiatry of Whites and Blacks living in colonial and non-colonial environments demonstrate valuable insights.  He fought the Nazis and for Algerian freedom, encouraging rejection of colonialist culture in favor oppressed people’s culture.  Fanon defended violence to achieve independence.  Supporters of the American Revolution can’t object to that theory.  

Fanon was Marxist and anti-colonial.  Apparently, his teaching is being used to support the polemic that everyone is either an oppressor or oppressed.  It is not clear that his ideas are being properly taught as there is discussion of slanted interpretation of his work into English.

The problem is not that the Harvard student read Fanon.  It is that he read Fanon in four classes, apparently without meaningful counter-discussion and possibly with biased interpretation.

Student polls can, among other things, help evaluate whether students feel free to speak their opinion on campus and in specific classes.

Campus panel discussions and debates, possibly with outside speakers, can tackle controversial issues.  This is a simple and obvious idea, but our universities have canceled disfavored speakers for over 50 years.

Conservative-thought clubs can be encouraged on-campus.  While I would be disinclined to give them more support than liberal clubs, if the university supports other diversity financially, …

Professors can schedule remote discussions with similar-topic classes at universities with different student characteristics. Hopefully, each class would have good diversity in thought, but, if not, this might help.

Student Contract: To assure that students understand the existence and limits of free speech and the right to protest, they could sign a contract prior to being allowed on campus, perhaps as part of a broader student code.  Provisions for protests could require that they be peaceful and not obstructive.  Protests by more than [5] people and/or encampments could require an advance permit.  Commitment to clean up afterwards could be included.

Some of the above could apply to high school as well.  Furthermore, civics education could get more attention, including education about how to work for change.

I welcome other ideas that would help, as well as criticism of the above.

 

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Israel should NOT respond to the Iranian attack of 2024-04-13

 Israel has proven that it is strong and will defend itself.  

It achieved its goal in killing two Iranian generals in its attack in Syria and Iran’s response did minimal damage.  

Hence, Israel can afford to restrain itself here, rather than risk a continued spiral to world war.  

Please relay this message to your friends in government and in Israel to help it reach Israeli decision-makers.

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Why I have been Pessimistic Re: the Future of the USA

 People seem to consider me to be an optimist because I see many ways we can improve and work to accomplish them.

However, a more appropriate perspective is that I see myself on a ship that is sinking and am trying to make things as good as possible for as long as possible.

I’ve always been pessimistic about our country’s future for the following reasons.  Hopefully, I will continue to try to prove myself wrong.

 

General principles

1.      All great previous civilizations have failed; so that is likely to be our destiny too.

2.      I innately understood the concept of “gravitation to the mean” at a young age.

 

Emotionally, I understood the foibles of humankind

3.      The most meaningful quote I’ve ever seen is from Niemoller: “First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Socialist.  Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Trade Unionist.  Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Jew.  Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”

4.      Another is from Lord Acton, paraphrasing earlier statements by others: “Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.”  This one I did not understand until adulthood.

5.      For years, when I’ve expressed concern about situations happening elsewhere, some people have responded “That could never happen here.”  I’ve told them that I was tempted to grab them and shake them because their attitude increased the likelihood that such things could happen here.

6.      Long ago, I realized that native-born USA citizens take our liberties for granted.  A great value of immigrants is that they understand the value of, and the vulnerability of, freedom of speech and religion and economic freedom.

 

Once we lose our freedoms, it can be hard to recover them

7.      Surveillance technology can make it very difficult to overthrow an oppressive regime (consider China).  See George Orwell’s “1984”. “Back to the Future, II” may serve as another warning.

8.      It is very hard to get everyone to agree on when it is time to overthrow an oppressive regime.  The American Revolution was an unusual event, and, at that time, things moved more slowly.  I don’t think a rebellion could muster so slowly in today’s world.

9.      The gun debate in the USA is tied to the issue of the citizenry being able to defend itself.  But even with guns, we can’t defend against the government’s technology and weaponry.

10.   The Queen of the Netherlands persuaded her country in the 1930s that gun control/registration was a great idea that would increase their safety.  But then the Nazis stormed in, found the list of guns and were able to go house-to-house to confiscate the guns.  As a result, the Dutch underground had no guns.  Optimists who see the world in rose-colored glasses respond that the Dutch were freed nonetheless.  But they were freed only because other countries with powerful weapons resisted the Germans.

 

Specific issues:

1.      For at least 60 years, I’ve been concerned about our education system.  In the latter part of the last century, people would start agreeing that our K-12 system was inadequate but express comfort that we had the best university education in the world.  I’d counter that a lot of the outstanding students in our universities came from other countries and then stayed in the USA, helping us greatly.  But I expected that brain drain to reverse, and once it does, it is hard to turn around.

2.      I’ve blogged about my distress regarding Nuclear Weapons.  Our policies have stimulated the spread of nuclear weapons.  Beyond the catastrophic existential risk, note how that threat has dramatically limited our defense of Ukraine.

11.   I was skeptical of Glasnost and the “Arab Spring”.  I felt we did not do enough to support the opening of Russia.  On the other hand, I was amazed (and excited) by the downfall of East Germany, which provides hope that I’m wrong.

12.   Watching “Forrest Gump” in 1994, I trembled with fear and have never gotten over it.  I saw pictures of Forrest Gump with JFK and with Marilyn Monroe, etc.  If pictures could be falsified in such fashion, how will people be able to tell what is true?  It is no surprise that we can now also create tapes of people saying whatever words we want to put in their mouth.  Historically, we lived in small towns and knew who to trust and who was a liar.  (That’s why juries of your peers were successful.)  Now that is no longer the case, so we’ve relied on concrete documentation, which sadly is no longer reliable.

13.   Advances like biotech, robots and AI obviously can pose a variety of threats.

 

Politically

14.   When I was young, I was an idealist and believed that a strong central government was more efficient and more fair.  I have since better understood the problems of concentration of power.  Anselme Batbie first recorded this concept: “Not to be a républicain at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head.” 

15.   Too many people in our country idealize corrupt regimes in Central and South America, China and elsewhere.  They want us to move in the direction of those countries, ignoring the fact that people want to emigrate from those countries to the USA.  Such immigrants are appalled by some of the stupid things we are doing to harm ourselves. We should pay them heed.

16.   Our education system has indoctrinated students and thwarted free speech.    (see The Hamas-Israeli War has Exposed the Rot in the USA Education System)

17.   The key political concept that made the USA great is Separation of Powers.  Unfortunately, we’ve been concentrating power at the national level and in the President.  That has scary potential repercussions.  (“Power corrupts”)

18.   Our Political Parties have Abandoned the Center and do NOT support Democracy.  I used to think that third parties were impractical, although I voted for them at times.  I now believe a third (centrist) party is critical.

Saturday, February 3, 2024

My (and candidates') views on the 2024 Presidential Election

Regardless of your political preferences, I encourage you to get involved in the 2024 elections.  At a minimum, discuss the issues and candidates with people.  I’ll address “Trump” voters and then “Biden” voters.  Please excuse me dropping titles such as “President” and “ex-President”; simply using last names makes it easier for readers.  Many links herein go to my past blogs.  The many charts from The Economist and some others do not display below.  You can find most at The Economist  (opens in a new window so you can tab back and forth) or you can ask me to send you a word document with all the charts.

Trump Voters: In my blogs (Trump did some good things as president; Why people vote for Trump (2020)) and discussion of issues below, I acknowledge some good things happened during Trump’s presidency.  However, I think Nikki Haley is more likely to accomplish your future goals for the following reasons:

 

Trump

Haley

Electability

May beat Biden, but there is a good chance Biden would beat him again, particularly as Biden is likely to continue to throw money at voters and to institute bad policy for short term political gains.

Very likely to beat Biden, as she appeals to a broad segment of voters and unlike Trump/Biden is young and non-divisive.

Coattails

Trump has had limited and decreasing success in electoral coattails.

More likely to have positive coattails, which is important to success in office.

Likely success 2024-28

 

 

Personality

Wants revenge; seeds chaos; alienates.  (see Donald Trump’s profile).    Hasn’t changed and won’t change, witness his tirade that he’d investigate Haley.

As an immigrant's child, she learned how to develop relationships and succeed in the USA.  She has developed coalitions in South Carolina, at the UN and in her campaign.

Reliability

Unreliable on anything; all about himself; no loyalty to people or ideas. Does it bother you that dozens of his former staff & allies say he should not be president?  Many more beyond the list, such as Mike Pompeo and Paul Ryan.

Consistent; has track record.

Ability to get support

Stimulates, motivates and ridicules opposition.

Builds support; people will be leery of criticizing 1st woman president as they were leery of criticizing 1st Black president.

Coat tails

Will face hostile Congress

Coattails will make Congress more supportive

Status

Lame duck

Cooperation encouraged by likelihood of 8 years

Longer term success

 

 

Potential 2nd term

Can’t have a third term

Good chance for 8 years

Post-presidency

Trump will continue to be all about him.  What good would he contribute post-Presidency?

After 8 years, she’d be 60 and could have a lot of on-going impact as UN Ambassador; congressperson; foundations; etc.

 

In sum, I can understand that you feel motivated to vote for Trump, but if you step back and look at things carefully, is Trump or Haley more likely to move this country in the direction you would like?


Biden voters: Obviously, I can understand your fear of Trump.  (See my following blogs: Risks To Which Trump Exposed Us, Donald Trump’s profile, The January 6th Hearings, Why I’m voting for Biden (2020), Impeachment of Donald Trump, Trump, close your Twitter account).  I, like you, voted for Biden in 2020.  As you’ll see if you read my commentary below, I have been disappointed in Biden’s performance.  Most Biden voters disagree with me, and that certainly is your prerogative.  However, the polls between Biden and Trump have been shifting more in favor of Trump, albeit close.  I heard a presentation by noted pollster/prognosticator Frank Luntz recently.  Barring an “October surprise” (which could go either way), he anticipates that the trend will move further toward Trump’s favor because Biden’s age is likely to become an increasing issue and because Biden is beset with foreign and national issues that Luntz does not expect to get better.  (I don’t entirely buy in to Luntz’s argument, but it certainly is a risk that Biden supporters need to consider.)

You might want to consider two alternatives to Biden:

1)     You could support Haley.  If Haley beats Trump, your worst nightmare is gone.

2)     Depending on how signals continue, at some point you might want to support a Unity ticket that “No Labels” is stimulating.  Originally, a number of Democrats told me that they feared that such a ticket would siphon more votes from Biden than from Trump, thereby causing Trump to win the election.  Lately, I’ve started hearing that the Unity ticket may be a godsend because it might be more likely than Biden to beat Trump.  Recently, I read an OpEd which expressed the hope that a Unity ticket would be a savior by drawing more votes from Trump than from Biden, thereby allowing Biden to win the election.


The Issues

I’ve included a lot of links below.  In general, you can find the candidates statements on the issues at: BidenHaley, and Trump.

Bringing us together is my #1 issue.  We haven’t had such a president since Bill Clinton.  I don’t think anyone believes that Trump would bring us together.  Biden has clearly not brought us together.  If you want to bring people together, you treat your former opponent with respect.  I’ve never seen a president deal with his predecessor with such one-sided disdain as has Biden.  I understand that many Biden supporters consider that to be appropriate, but it does not bring us together.  Consider:

·        Biden refused to acknowledge that, under Trump’s administration, the COVID vaccine was developed in record time, a huge boost to our recovery during the Biden administration.

·        Biden continued Trump policies (e.g., tariffs) without crediting Trump.

Biden and the Democrats say they support democracy, but neither political party supports democracy.  That’s a big problem and spurs my support for ’No Labels’ and various election reforms.

Biden has appointed and nominated extremists to government positions.  In my blog, I commented on only one of the extreme candidates he has put forward: Nusrat Choudhury should not be confirmed as a federal judge.  (As Wikipedia documents, she was confirmed by a very narrow partisan vote.)

To lead us effectively and bring us together, we need a leader with integrity and character.  I’ve never felt that Trump has either characteristic (we found a 1988 family video in that regard) and I imagine that both Trump and Biden voters understand why I dislike Trump (you can see the above blogs). 

I used to think that Biden had those characteristics, but I no longer do.  “Power corrupts” seems clearly to have befallen Biden.  In this analysis, I point out Biden’s consistency in blaming other people for his mistakes.  Voting Laws and Voter Suppression exposes shameful behavior by Biden.  Although I still don’t think he benefited meaningfully from Hunter Biden’s trafficking in the Biden family name, Biden has clearly mishandled the situation.  Not only did he fail to thwart Hunter’s activities, he seems to have aided Hunter.  Even if he was not involved in generating the false claim that Hunter’s laptop was part of a Russian disinformation campaign, he did nothing to counter what he knew to be a false claim.  There are other examples.

On the other hand, ‘No Labels’ is all about bringing us together.  Nikki Haley grew up as the only Indian family in her neighborhood, learning how to get along with people who were originally hostile to her.

Foreign policy.  It seemed that it would be easy to improve upon Trump’s foreign policy, but Biden’s has been much worse.  Yet, ironically, in the next 4 years, Trump’s foreign policy may be worse than Biden’s.

Trump’s foreign policy involved speaking disgustingly favorably about our enemies, being unduly influenced if they catered to his ego, offending our allies and creating counter-productive tariff walls.  Nonetheless, as I observed at the time, he acted more stronger against Russia than did Obama and he embraced Israel, producing real progress with the Abraham Accords.  He pressured NATO members to increase defense spending.

Biden’s departure from Afghanistan was horrendous, and he falsely pointed fingers at his staff, the Afghanis and Trump, rather than admit his failures.  His Afghanistan fiasco is one of the many ways he  encouraged Putin to attack Ukraine. I continue to believe that Putin would not have attacked Ukraine in 2020 if Trump had been re-elected.

For way too long, Biden refused strong support for Ukraine.  How crazy is it to tell a country that they can defend themselves only by destroying their land, without attacking their enemy?  Biden allowed Russia to dig in and establish their defenses, then, in characteristic Biden fashion, he blamed Ukraine for having difficulty ousting an entrenched enemy.

Trump proposes to abandon Ukraine.  Ironically, having been so disappointed by Biden’s approach to Ukraine, I now must favor him over Trump on this issue.  As John Bolton wrote (WSJ, 2024-02-01, p.A19) “President Biden’s aid to Ukraine has been piecemeal and nonstrategic, but it is almost inevitable that a second-term Trump policy on Ukraine would favor Moscow.”

John Bolton (WSJ, 2024-02-01, p.A19) wrote, among other comments that demonstrate that Trump is unfit “He invariably equated good personal relations with foreign leaders to good relations between countries.”  I think Bolton was holding back.  It would be more accurate to say “He invariably equated SUPERFICIAL good personal relations with foreign leaders to good relations between countries.”  In fact, all a person has to do is to speak positively toward Trump.

Robert Gates (Secretary of Defense under both Bush and Obana) wrote “I think he [Biden] has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”  At the time, Gates lauded Biden’s character and integrity.  I thought the same at the time, but as president, Biden has shown a great lack of character and integrity.

Ironically, Biden is being criticized by his handling of the Hamas-Israel conflict.  I think he has done a good job in a very difficult situation in which our ally, Israel has made a serious mistake.  It is important to understand, however, that the fundamental Palestinian problem is that one side has continually rejected peace as a solution.  (I stopped supporting Biden when he chose not to veto a UN resolutions that failed to include a release of the hostages and when he demanded that Israel put the safety of Gazan citizens above all else.  Clearly, you can't wage war if your enemies' civilians lives are your #1 priority, particularly when your opponent uses human shields.) 

Earlier, I felt Biden was too negative toward Israel.  His interference relative to Israel’s internal Supreme Court issue exposed the lack of character and integrity he has displayed in office.  The Israeli Supreme Court has an unreasonable amount of power, much stronger than the US Supreme Court.  Yet, Biden somehow argues that the Israeli Supreme Court’s power should not be restrained, while he supports reducing the power of the US Supreme Court.  The consistency in his argument is not principle.  It is that the Israeli Supreme Court is currently leftist while the US Supreme Court is rightist.  Biden supports the left at the expense of principle.

No Labels says (rather vaguely) “It’s in America’s interest to work with our allies to advance our mutual interests”.

Nikki Haley has been strongly supportive of Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel.

 

Environment:  Overall, Biden’s environmental record is superior to Trump’s.  Many environmental issues need federal management. 

Nonetheless, I disagree with Biden on some process and policy issues.  I fault both Republican and Democratic presidents for absorbing power through presidential executive orders and, the Democrats for administrative law-making.  Separation of Powers is very important to me.  I also don’t like it when the federal government picks “winners”, preferring incentives that encourage citizens and businesses to invest in improving the environment.  The cost of the Inflation Reduction Act (is that a misnomer?) will be greatly inflated by the administration’s regulatory rules.  The Chevron Doctrine  encourages the Executive branch to usurp the responsibilities of both Congress and the Supreme Court.

Energy policy: Although Trump was not as supportive of renewable energy as I would like, renewables did advance during his tenure (as shown several pages below).  Prior to entering office, Biden said his position was “No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill.  Period.”  He also said “no new fracking” and “no new oil and gas permits on public land”.  While in office, he said “we're going to be shutting [coal] plants down all across America”.  While he emphasized that he would be combative toward coal, oil, and gas, I think we need time to migrate to renewable energy and should value traditional sources of power in the interim.

After putting the industry on notice that he wanted to put them out of business, Biden, as always, blamed those sources for energy shortages.  He turned to Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia to boost production.  What sense does this make?

1.      Attacking fuel sources makes our energy supply less stable, hurts our economy and costs jobs.

2.      He made concessions to Venezuela and Iran, helping terrible regimes.

3.      He made our allies dependent on our enemies for energy.

4.      He increased worldwide pollution significantly because those foreign sources develop energy in much less environmental fashion than we do.

I strongly support developing renewable energy, albeit in a more balanced fashion.

Liquid Natural Gas (LNG).  As noted above, Obama embraced LNG exports for geopolitical reasons.  He also thought that exported LNG was more environmentally friendly than local coal.  

Trump, of course, embraced LNG exports, approving permits on average in 7 weeks. 

Biden averaged 11 months to approve until, in January 2024, he halted approvals to reconsider whether to allow them.  This article gives the anti-LNG-export argument, that it is dirtier than local coal (because of methane emissions and shipping emissions), will raise natural gas prices for US residents (by diverting natural gas to LNG rather than increasing natural gas production) and will replace renewables (countries that invest in LNG facilities won’t want to convert to renewables).

My main take-away is that we make major decisions based on unreliable studies, as this article argues regarding studies under Obama and Trump.  Sadly, the current studies also might be wrong.  Biden’s decision to review makes sense but the activists won’t accept any conclusion other than no new approvals.  It is troubling to me that they liken this campaign to the Keystone XL Pipeline which was a colossal example of Federal perfidy.

Opponents suggest that, if we don’t export LNG, countries will develop more renewable resources.  Did they consider that countries may build the facilities anyway, to receive LNG from Russia (which had record LNG exports in December), Iran and Qatar, our biggest LNG competitors?

Electric cars: I have had alternative fuel vehicles for more than 30 years, since successfully pushing Transamerica for its first company car that could operate on methanol.  But I am concerned that our heavy-handed pressure to move to electric cars is driven more by an effort to claim environmental leadership than by sound policy.  It is not clear that we have properly evaluated the relative advantages and disadvantages of hybrids vs. all-electric cars.  The reliance of electric vehicles on rare earth minerals brings a lot of environmental, economic and security concerns.

No Labels supports an “all of the above” energy policy and developing domestic and friendly sources of rare earth minerals so we can build clean energy industries.

Haley acknowledges that climate change is real and caused by humans.  She has supported a broad energy proposal (including nuclear and offshore drilling in South Carolina) but has expressed concern that green energy subsidies were misdirected and that 2035 electric car mandates are unwise due to the rare earth minerals and the impact of the heavy weight of electric cars on our roads.

Education is critical to our future in general and to improve standard of living for our lower-income families.  (I am more concerned about improving their standard of living than about narrowing the range of incomes in the USA, although I strongly support graduated income taxes.)  As explained at education, I have many ideas regarding how we can improve education in the United States.

We talk a lot about systemic racism and white privilege in the USA.  Although I agree those exist, I generally think they are exaggerated.  However, where systemic racism seems most blatant and to have the most aggregate harm is in our public school system.  We’ve known for more than 30 years that public charter are effective, but the teachers’ unions fight them tooth-and-nail because the teachers’ unions don’t like being embarrassed that non-union schools have better results and because the teachers’ unions want to hoard power.  The Democrats (Obama somewhat less so) and Biden, in particular, are wedded to the teachers’ unions rather than to education.  Biden says he is not a fan of charter schools because they take away the options available and money for public schools.  He ignores that charter schools are often public schools and that they use less money per pupil than other public schools.

No Labels position is “No child should be forced to go to a failing school.”  No Labels supports a goal of opening 10,000 public charter schools in the next 10 years.

Nikki Haley has often spoken out in favor of charter schools and improved education for less-affluent and rural children.  She also has favored more local and parental control of schools and more vocational training.

Immigration is clearly a major issue.  My Immigration blog expresses my opinions on immigration.  Trump did too much deportation.  Separating children and parents at the border was also wrong.  Unfortunately, Biden signaled that he favored open borders helping to stimulate a flood.  Now he is seeking Congressional support to “empower” him to take action.  How often has he, as president, felt a need for Congressional support.  By seeking Congressional support, he is trying to convey the impression that his mishandling of the border crisis was not his fault.  I don’t disagree that Congress has failed to do its job, but that does not explain Biden’s poor handling of immigration.  At various times, each party has wanted to kill any possible immigration agreements because they wanted immigration to be a political campaign issue. Shame on them!

No Labels position is: secure the border; attract hardworking taxpayers; protect the Dreamers.

Nikki Haley was an immigrant child; she knows what it is like.  She is compassionate and respectful of illegal as well as legal immigrants but feels that we need to protect our borders and should consider merit in selecting among potential immigrants.  She would defund sanctuary cities.

The economy.  For several reasons, I tend not to vote based on the current economy.  The economy runs on broad cycles where actions have intermediate-term or long-term impact.  As a result, the “current” economy often reflects the actions of previous presidents as much or more than the actions of the current president.  Furthermore, the economy often reflects factors independent of the government.  For example, some factors that boosted the stock market during Obama’s presidency were:

·        Fracking, which he actively opposed (but he then embraced resultant LNG exports after Russia invaded Ukraine, exports which would not have been possible had he succeeded in blocking fracking).

·        Drones, which he felt should be restricted until regulations were created.  According to this site,  Congress passed a law in 2012, which allowed the FAA to approve limited commercial operations and individual private pilots on a case-by-case basis.  Operators had to be licensed to fly full-sized aircraft and have a Class 2 Medical certificate, which oddly are stiffer than the standards to fly a private airplane.  It required full integration into our National Airspace System by 2015.  According to a 2023 GAO report, drones can provide “significant social and economic benefits”, but such integration had not yet occurred.

·        3-D printing, which was accomplished by private industry.

According to the WSJ, the USA economy grew 2.5% in 2023.  Of note, fossil-fuel producing states led the ways (ND, 5.9%; TX, 5.7%; WY, 5.4%; OK, 5.3%; AK, 5.3%, WV, 4.7%; NM, 4.1%).  On the other hand: WI, 0.2%; NY, 0.7%; OH, 1.2%; IL, 1.3%; INI, 1.4%; MI and NJ, 1.5%.  Once again, it seems that the President is being credited with economic growth that he is fighting.

The following chart suggests that the election of a Democrat or Republican has made little difference in stock market growth during the 10 year period starting with the beginning of the election year.

A graph on a screen

Description automatically generated 

I vote based on what I think is best for the country, not what is best for me.

The biggest issue for me relative to the economy is the national deficit.  See 10 Lessons from the Pandemic.  Sadly, our political system discourages Federal politicians from addressing the deficit and we’ve exacerbated the situation by pushing more and more issues to the federal level.

Tariff and trade deals are another important issue relative to both foreign policy and economics.  While I agree that our national security requires the protection of some industries (an issue that was overlooked prior to Trump), Trump’s approach to these issues has been harmful.  His claim that he is an expert negotiator has been disproven by his presidential record.

For all the criticism that Biden has heaped on Trump, he has maintained the tariffs, which make the whole world’s economy less efficient.  One adverse result is that USA consumers pay higher prices.  Ironically, Biden says that we should help create jobs in other countries so their citizens will be less likely to want to emigrate to the USA for economic reasons.  Tariffs and less cooperative trade agreements have the opposite effect.

Tariffs have also damaged our relationships with our allies.

The Economist printed a series of charts (which do not display below) to show how various economic indicators have fared under Trump and Biden.  Proper interpretation of such charts requires an intimate knowledge of how various factors impact the economy and what actions were taken.  While I don’t feel fully capable in these regards, readers are likely to find my comments, which differ in some respects from The Economist, to be interesting.

When looking at Trump’s record, it is important to look at his first three years, recognizing that the COVID pandemic created an extremely unusual situation which required deviations from his normal approach.  (My blog, 10 Lessons from the Pandemic, supports the responsive spending in the Trump administration, but not the continued deficits under the Biden administration.).


A graph with a line graph and numbers

Description automatically generatedimage: the economist

The inflation rate was stable during Trump’s term, dipping slightly until it dropped precipitously during COVID (which should be ignored, in my opinion).  The two stimulus packages under Trump were necessary to combat the COVID pandemic’s economic impact.  Of course, we need to save money in good years, to be able to overspend under such circumstances.  However, Biden irresponsibly chose to rachet over-spending to an even higher level.  His response to many issues is to buy votes by taking actions that will cost the Federal government a lot of money which it does not have.


image: the economist

Below, please find a Statista chart showing the CPI and real earnings during the Biden years:

Infographic: Real Wages Rise Again as Wage Growth Outpaces Inflation | Statista

Wages grew consistently under Trump before COVID, and real wages were increasing even more.  Furthermore, the lower-income classes saw a higher percentage of wage growth, which had not been seen in a long time.  The spike during COVID should be ignored.

According to https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/wage-growth-past-six-years/, the growth in real earnings averaged 0.8% between 2012 and 2017.  Clearly, Trump had a favorable impact.

Under Biden, average gross earnings have fallen, largely because of the distortion caused by the COVID numbers (lower income people lost more jobs, causing average earnings to rise misleadingly).  Average earnings under Biden is now clearly a bit shy of the Trump trendline.  Of itself, this drop is not substantial.  But when coupled with increased inflation, real wages are clearly not doing as well under Biden as they were under Trump.  With supply line difficulties mostly resolved, government practices seem to be the cause.

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To extend the above chart to include years before Trump, I found the following chart from the St. Louis Federal Bank.

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Thus, the percentage employed tumbled early in the Obama years, but then started to rebound.

Under Trump, the rate of growth increased as his policies spurred employment, getting back to the 2008 level before the pandemic.  I give credit to Biden for doing well also, although I think Biden is benefiting from changes that Trump instituted.

I applaud The Economist for using this metric.  In the USA press, I’m accustomed to seeing the ratio of the number employed divided by the sum of the number employed plus those looking for work.  That statistic understates unemployment when people are discouraged and stop looking for jobs and it undervalues action that causes more people to look for jobs.


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As per my discussion above, 2020 should be ignored.  In the remaining six-year period, Trump had the three lowest deficits and Biden had the three highest deficits. Furthermore, Biden’s actions have made increasing future deficits extremely likely.  I believe Trump did significantly better in this key area.  Eventually, our debt burdened is going to come crashing down on future generations, and the lower economic classes and middle class are likely to be hurt most.  Our deficits are unconscionable.  As I’ve noted, we need surpluses in good years to be able to afford deficits required by pandemics, wars, or other extraordinarily difficult times.  I don’t believe we can have a balanced budget every year, but in most years, we should save for bad times.

If you look back to Obama’s years in office, you see huge deficits early, steadily dropping to a bit below Trump’s first year.  However, that history also indicates how careful you have to be when analyzing such numbers.  The following factors contributed to the high early-year Obama deficits and to the lower deficits thereafter:

1)     The bank “bail-out” under the TARP program accounted for half the 2009 deficit (per www.usgovernmentspending.com).  Calling those transactions a “bail out” was bogus.  The Federal government invested $426 billion and eventually recovered $442 billion (per wikipedia.org).  TARP was done under Bush, yet Obama looked good when the recoveries came in during his administration.

2)     Obama decided to put the wars into the budget.  I applauded that, thinking he was doing it to increase economic accountability.  I hoped he would subsequently put entitlements into the budget as well.  Sadly, I learned that he put the Iraq war into the budget solely to make his administration look good relative to managing the deficit.  He intended to reduce war efforts and wanted to take credit for it.  Had he planned to increase the war effort, he would have kept the war out of the budget.

However, neither Trump nor Biden wants to address the entitlement problems that are facing the country.  Both No Labels and Nikki Haley have the political courage to address the issue. 

Relative to deficits in general, No Labels says “Congress must vote on a debt reduction plan from an independent bipartisan commission.”  I was a fan of the Bowles-Simpson 2010 plan because it had both aspects I cheered and aspects I grieved over, and was balanced and would have succeeded.  The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities* reports that about half of the expense savings but none of the revenue enhancements have occurred anyway.  The left-leaning CBPP does not favor adopting Bowles-Simpson’s suggestion (relative to social security for example).  The more supportive and centrist Brookings Institution* published a list of 10 lessons from the effort.  “the balance” also concludes that it would have worked.

* www.allsides.com/media-bias/ has ratings of L L C R R.  CBPP has the more left rating, whereas Brookings Institution has a rating of C.  It does not show a rating for “the balance”.

Haley’s opinions on the economy can be found here.

 


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As I mentioned earlier, stock market performance reflects much more than the current president.  The Lincoln Financial Group chart I showed earlier indicates that collectively over 10-year periods starting at the beginning of presidential election years, it has not mattered whether the Republicans or Democrats won the election.  However, that does not mean that specific presidents have not had beneficial impacts.

The stock market has done surprisingly well under Biden.  However, recent highs are largely attributable to the information technology industry; other sectors collectively are only ~5% higher than in January 2021.  The Biden administration has been blocking technology mergers, so it seems that tech stocks have done well despite Biden, not because of him.

I think stock prices are inflated because we presume companies will continue far into the future (company life expectancy is dropping significantly because of the pace of change) and discount those very speculative earnings with a discount rate that is too low.

The Economist chart looks favorable for both Trump and Biden but is not determinative.


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Homicide rates in each of Trump’s first three years were below homicide rates in each of Biden’s first 3 years.  The Democrats have been soft on crime in general.  I believe in criminal justice reform including: replacing bail with electronic monitoring in most cases; helping inmates turn their lives around; helping released inmates be able to get a job; etc.  I also agree with increasing the availability of mental health support to reduce the need for police to handle such situations.

However, I do NOT believe in ignoring crime, nor do I believe in refusing to prosecute crime.

Biden may not be responsible for this poor comparison to Trump, but his party bears responsibility and he has done too little to push back against the progressive wing of his party.

No Labels supports barring the purchase of guns until age 21 and universal background checks.  It also believes in more and better community policing and in prosecuting crimes and taking steps to avoid recidivism.

Haley believes in supporting police, prosecuting criminals and investing to reduce recidivism.


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Despite the criticism of environmentalists, renewable energy grew under Trump.  However, it clearly has done better under Biden.  Furthermore, Trump pulled us out of the Paris Accord; if he is the preeminent negotiator that he claims to be, why couldn’t he have made it better, instead of pulling out?  This issue clearly favors Biden.

However, I think Biden has done poorly, as explained above, because I take a broader view of energy policy and how it impacts our economy, worldwide pollution, climate change and geopolitics.  Furthermore, why not review the possibilities of nuclear power as well as LNG?  I am concerned about nuclear waste long-term storage, but the French seem to be very successful with nuclear power and it is good for the climate.

I think more attention needs to be paid to the possibility that hybrids are a better (or perhaps fairly close) alternative to electric vehicles.

As noted above, No Labels supports renewables with a focus on securing reliable access to adequate rare earth minerals.

Haley wants to promote environmental innovation rather than rush to sell current electric vehicles with their rare earth mineral reliance on China and the Congo and their heavy weight which could be a problem for our roads.


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This chart shows a 40% increase in three years under Trump, and production now is only 1.5% higher than it was under Trump.  Clearly if Trump had been re-elected, the growth rate would have been much higher.   The key question, of course, is what is the preferred level of oil production?  I’d rather that oil be produced in the USA than in Russia, Iran or Venezuela.


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See my earlier comments about immigration.  I did not like the way Trump hunted illegal aliens who had led a clean life in the USA, had worked and paid taxes.  Criticisms of Biden’s record compared to Trump ignore that aspect. 

However, Biden’s rhetoric stimulated a significantly worse immigration crisis.  “Catch and release” with trials scheduled years into the future is a disaster.  Biden has continued some of Trump’s immigration policies. Shame on them!


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Both Trump and Biden rate low in approval.  In today’s world, it is hard to get a good approval rating.  Nonetheless, an inspirational leader who works to bring us together is critical and would get much higher ratings.