The
United Nations Open Working Group is trying to whittle down 212 potential goals
for 2030 to develop a list of perhaps 5 well-defined and impactful goals that
will update the 8 “Millennium Development Goals for 2015” that were established
in 2000. The new list is supposed to be
issued in September 2015. Reportedly,
the original goals led to significant success, so this effort should be worth
considering.
Recently
Bjorn Lomberg, who heads the Copenhagen Consensus Center (www.copenhagenconsensus.com),
published a quick analysis (I can send you a copy; you can comment at http://ranksmartsolutions.com/) of many of the 212 potential goals, the
consensus of 60 leading economists categorizing them as:
·
Phenomenal
= Robust evidence for benefits more than 15 times higher than costs. 27 of the 212 goals fell into this category
·
Good
= Robust evidence of benefits between 5 and 15 times higher than costs.
·
Fair
= Robust evidence of benefits between 1 and 5 times higher than costs.
·
Poor
= The benefits are smaller than costs or target poorly specified (e.g.
internally inconsistent, incentivizes wrong activity. 23 of the 212 goals fell into this category
·
Uncertain
= There is not enough knowledge of the policy options that could reach the
target OR the costs and benefits of the actions to reach the target are not
well known.
·
Health-related
o
Reducing
malnutrition
o
Reducing
malaria deaths by 95% and tuberculosis to 4 deaths per 100,000
o
Researching
vaccines and medications for communicable diseases
o
Universal
access to means of reproductive health
o
Reducing
premature deaths from non-communicable disease (includes changing habits such
as smoking)
o
Improved
water quality
o
Achieving
universal health coverage including financial risk protection
·
Education-related
o
Inclusive
early childhood development programs such as preprimary education
o
Equal
access to quality education at all levels, including removing gender bias
·
Business-related
(not all limited to business)
o
Increasing
female participation in the work force and right to own assets, etc.
o
Facilitating
trade, such as by improving regional infrastructure and removing export
subsidies.
o
Eliminate
incentives for over-fishing and restore fish stocks to ecologically safe levels
o
Knowledge-sharing
o
Increasing
access to modern energy and reducing incentives for wasteful use of energy
o
Improve
ability to deal with climate-induced hazards (CT: seems as though this could also
help with hazards that are not climate-induced)
I looked
through the report for references to micro-loan activity, as I have, for many
years, described micro-loans as, in my opinion, our most effective foreign
policy. It seemed that micro-finance
activity might help achieve many of the goals, perhaps rather than a goal in
itself. I found the following quotes (my
highlighting):
·
“5.7
ensure women’s equal access to, control and ownership of assets and natural and
other productive resources, as well as non-discriminatory access to essential
services and infrastructure, including financial services and ICT
RATING:
GOOD This goal is linked strongly to general development; the first step is to
ensure women have opportunities to access assets and therefore gain income. Additionally, there is evidence that
improving property and ownership rights of women would increase aggregate economic
benefits. For example, if women were able to better enforce property rights
they would have more incentives to increase the value and productivity of land
they manage (if a crop or plot of land becomes valuable, there is the risk of
appropriation by men in the household). Giving access to financial
services is PHENOMENAL, especially if we take into account the success of microfinance
in empowering women and getting them out of poverty. Giving them access
to ICT services is probably FAIR (relatively higher cost), but it could be good
if learning how to operate computers and the internet are valuable skills in
the labor market, and if they can access information in the internet, which
could empower women.”
·
“8.8
create enabling conditions for increased growth and productivity of micro-,
small- and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs), including through policies that
promote entrepreneurship, creativity and innovation, and through improved access
to markets and financial services
RATING:
UNCERTAIN what an ‘appropriate climate for SMEs, entrepreneurship and
innovation’ means. However, early
limited evidence suggests this may be in GOOD category but more research
required. There have been randomized controlled trials that suggest certain
interventions such as providing early stage risk capital, and improving basic
skilling have high benefits, relative to costs. Evidence is not clear enough to
provide more confident recommendation.”
·
“9.3
ensure a conducive policy environment for industrial development, including
encouragement of industrial entrepreneurship and enterprise formation with
inclusion of micro- and SMEs
RATING:
GOOD It is important to foster an environment for entrepreneurship – one in
which individuals have access to capital and are rewarded for taking risks.
Expanding opportunities for entrepreneurship is particularly important in the
developing world where it has not just economic, but social benefits (life
satisfaction, upward mobility).”
·
“9.12
ensure small-scale industrial producers have affordable access to credit and
financial services
RATING:
PHENOMENAL Access to credit for small scale producers is very important. It
encourages entrepreneurship and allows businesses to expand. This is a key
target that is likely to yield economic and social benefits.”
·
Bruhn, M. and D. Mckenzie, 2013, Entry
Regulation and Formalization of Microenterprises in Developing Countries, World
Bank policy and research paper 6507
