Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Why I’m Voting for former VP Joe Biden

Quotes herein come from my earlier writings, so you can judge, if you wish, my consistency.  Consistency in applying principles (particularly to both sides of the political aisle) is good, but a consistent wrong position is not good and changes in circumstances can also may require a change of opinion.

In 2016, “as I lived in a non-contested state (Trump was certain to win Kansas), I had both the luxury and the responsibility to vote for neither candidate.”  So, I voted for Evan McMullin. 

I have voted for third-party candidates but have historically not been enthusiastic about forming a third major party.  A third party is of much greater appeal to me now, because our system has morphed into one which favors extremists and disunity.  (I also favor ranked-choice voting and some Congressional reforms that would improve our current system, but all of that is beyond the scope of this paper.)

In 2020, I’ll vote for Joe Biden, although I admit to having some fears regarding a Biden presidency.  In a companion paper, I’ve described “The (Unfortunate) Case For Voting for President Trump”.  I think President Trump should lose in a landslide, but the Democrats are keeping that from happening.

Clearly, I am voting against President Trump more so than for ex-VP Biden.

He is clearly unfit to be President. 

1.      President Trump respects very few (if any) people.  “Trump continually makes enemies unnecessarily.”  He can neither create nor retain positive relationships, mismanaging staff and allies.  He has been hugely more unnecessarily divisive than his two predecessors (both of whom I think were unnecessarily divisive).  President Trump brings out the worst behavior of his opponents.

2.      He also does not respect issues.  “Trump lacks the mental discipline/stamina to stay on topic.”

3.      “Trump may have the loosest lips of any politician in our lifetime.”  His lack of self-control creates security risk and undermines opportunities to accomplish positive results.

4.      “he does not seem to understand the concept of truth.  … A person who is amoral does not have a way of judging right from wrong.  Trump’s lying seems similar to being amoral.  He just knows what he wants to be the case and says it.  Truth or falsehood is irrelevant to him.”   Because his statements generally are so blatantly false, he is incapable of generating trust.

5.      For the above reasons, President Trump does not earn respect from others.  Furthermore, “his self-praise is ridiculed and convinces people that he is incompetent.”  He claims responsibility for success which does not occur yet accepts no responsibility for anything that goes bad.

6.      He wants to impose his will on others, rather than to persuade them.

7.      Despite my very broad definition of intelligence, I have never been able to find intelligence in Trump.  “Trump unnecessarily continually creates opponents and unnecessarily arms them to defeat him” with his statements.  He would do much better in an election which focused on his policies, but he has buoyed ex-VP Biden, by making it an election about Trump, rather than issues. How smart is that?

8.      For the above reasons, I did not vote for Trump in 2016 but I hoped that he might rise to the occasion and that his "trumpeted" negotiating skills would have value.  Alas, he has very limited negotiating skills.  Bullying, ridicule and insincere praise are his primary tools.  He “does not understand the people with whom he is negotiating.”  “He is a very poor judge of how he affects people”, thinking that obviously insincere compliments will sway people on the other side of the table.  On the other hand, his fragile ego is easily swayed by insincere praise. 

There are myriad examples of statements and actions that demonstrate the above.  I don’t think there is any need to delineate them.

His handling of the pandemic reflects dereliction of duty.  I don’t criticize positions on opening or closing the economy if people have good reasons for their position.  (Note: some people mischaracterized the debate as “lives vs. profit”, not recognizing the tremendously negative impact on health that results from a lengthy recession or depression.)

However, when an emergency arises, it is critical for a leader to rally people to support a plan.  If the plan is sound, we must abide by it so it can work.  If the plan is unsound, we must abide by it (as long as it does not exacerbate the problem), so we can conclude that it does not work, then try something else.  In my opinion, Trump’s disdain for masks (for example) has been absolutely inexcusable.

He acknowledges that he intentionally understated the severity, claiming that he did so to avoid panic.  If he did so to avoid panic, he demonstrated serious lack of judgment.  Of course, given his lack of character and lack of honesty, probably few people believe that was his reason.

He also failed to marshal resources, except it seems for vaccine research.

I disagree with Trump on some other issues, but they are not necessarily disqualifying because there are so many issues in any political campaign. 

·        When addressing trade issues, you need to prioritize and build support from allies. 

·        I’m generally a high-tax guy.  We need to reduce debt.

·        And issues which transcend state lines (such as some environmental issues) need national coordination.  Those are not areas to slash federal staffing.

In fairness, there are some things that President Trump has done well  (court nominations, most of his deregulation, Palestinian situation, Kosovo vs. Serbia) but, to me, they pale in significance compared to the above.

The (Unfortunate) Case For Voting for President Trump

I am voting against President Trump because he is clearly unfit for the job.  That offends me and scares me.  Unfortunately, former VP Biden, the Democrats and the “Resistance” have made it harder to persuade conservatives to vote against President Trump, making this election closer than it should be.

It is important for moderates, liberals and progressives to understand reasons why some conservatives won’t abandon President Trump.  I’m not maintaining that the following thoughts represent all or even a majority of Trump voters, but they represent a majority of the Trump voters with whom I have spoken.

Many leftist voters perceive themselves to be tolerant and Trump voters to be intolerant.  Is it tolerant to wantonly describe opponents as "crooks", "racists", or with other epithets?  Is it tolerant to feel morally superior to others and want to impose your "superior" views with a "cancel" culture and other suppressions of free speech?  Is it tolerant to expel members of your "faith" when that person doesn't completely agree with one of the (perhaps morphing or new) tenets?  If you're a "progressive" and don't participate in such intolerance, should you challenge your brethren who behave in such fashion?

There certainly are intolerant Trump supporters.  I object to intolerance on both sides and try to discipline myself to minimize such behavior and to challenge it.  My point here is that the many leftists who write off Trump supporters as "intolerant people" miss the fact that a significant number of Trump supporters do not approve of his behavior but vote for him because of the intolerance of the political left and for the reasons cited below.

In a 9/17 letter to the editor of the Wall Street Journal, Adam Graham of Charleston SC wrote “President Trump’s worst instincts are held in check” by a vast array of people and institutions, whereas ex-VP Biden’s feared leftist agenda “would face few institutional impediments.”

It is telling that Mr. Graham did not identify Republicans as an entity helping to curb President Trump’s worst instincts.  Clearly, Republicans should object to “worst instincts”.

It is not possible to hold all of President Trump’s worst instincts in check because he acts impulsively and causes damage without checks and balances being able to affect his salvo.  While I don’t agree that all of President Trump’s worst instincts are held in check, I do agree that President Trump’s administration is blocked and distracted much more than an ex-VP Biden leftist administration would be.

Many people voted for Trump in 2016 because of Supreme Court issues.  He had identified a list of seemingly highly-qualified potential judges.  While his opponents claim that he has stacked the court, I believe Trump restored some balance to the court.  An indicator of whether a court is stacked is whether judges vote uniformly.  Clearly, the “liberal” judges vote more as a bloc than do conservative judges.  In my opinion, it was the Democrats who stacked the Supreme Court.

Some of my liberal friends would likely argue that the reason the conservatives don’t vote as a bloc is because sometimes the “rightness” of the liberals is so overwhelming that one or another conservative must vote his/her conscience.  That perspective is mired in the myopic presumption that conservatives are generally not voting their conscience.

I think the liberal judges believe in a “living Constitution” and are more willing to find ways to interpret the Constitution to support what they think are the right decisions.  The conservative judges are more likely “strict Constructionists” but not entirely uniform in their interpretations, particularly when it comes to prioritizing competing principles.  I applauded when Judge Gorsuch stated that a good judge won’t like all of his/her decisions because the law may not support his/her personal preferences.

Some people continue to favor Trump because of future Supreme Court openings.  I understand that (and would understand a similar attitude by liberals; I respect their resentment regarding Merrick Garland being blocked by the Republican Senate in 2016).  However, the bigger issue is that some Democrats talk about expanding the Supreme Court, which is an outrageous blatant expression of intent to stack the court.  Is it not reasonable for conservatives to fear that Biden might set the terrible precedent of a President and Congress conspiring to create a Supreme Court which will support the President's and Congress's goals?  Doing so permanently undermines the independence of the Supreme Court, making the USA government more like a third-world country's government.  It is amazing to me that the Democrats have worked so hard to create a major reason to vote for President Trump.

By the way, I’d support staggered 18-year terms for Supreme Court justices to reduce the enduring influence one President can have.

(The above was written before Justice Ginsburg died.  I’d like to see the Republicans in the Senate delay the next Supreme Court selection to balance the Merrick Garland fiasco.  But if Republicans succeed in replacing Ginsburg, conservatives’ Supreme Court reasons to vote for President Trump should be weaker.  Sadly, they won’t be weaker because of the Democrats’ desire to stack the court by expanding it.)

Unfortunately, Trump has also been handed a ‘law and order’ campaign issue.  Before discussing that, I’ll state unequivocally that George Floyd’s death was appalling, which creates an appropriate campaign issue that Republicans have not adequately addressed.  Police reforms such as modifying qualified immunity, oversight boards, the power of police unions, etc. need to be considered. 

However, I was also upset at the response of the city of Minneapolis.  As we’ve had protests and riots before, city management should be well-prepared for such occurrences.  Kneeling with peaceful protesters is a great response, if sincere.  Yet Minneapolis’ elected and appointed leaders abandoned their duties, allowing uncontested violence that was televised nationally, thereby encouraging violence in other cities.  Other cities did the same; Seattle's mayor saw a "block party atmosphere" and "summer of love".  In Portland’s case, the media continues to count the days of Portland’s protests since George Floyd’s death, ignoring that Portland seemed to be turning a blind eye to such violence even before Floyd’s death.

For a long time, the Democrats ignored and accepted the violence, denying its existence.  Finally, some Democrats began to speak against the violence but that appeared to be for belated political expediency rather than firm belief.

I sympathize with people who fear coddling violence.  However, President Trump stimulates aggressive resistance and is unable and unwilling to calm it.  He does not respect peaceful protest.  Although I recognize 'law and order' as a big issue, it does not sway my vote.

Trump stimulated impressive job growth before his trade failures and the pandemic interfered.  In an example of distorted history, some people claim that President Obama’s actions fueled the Trump administration job growth, job gains that President Obama's administration had said were impossible.

For several reasons, President Obama’s record relative to jobs is much less positive than claimed.

1.     For example, the mislabeled “bail out” was the key step that helped us out of the financial crisis.  President Obama benefitted greatly from that effort which was done by George W. Bush.

2.      The unemployment rate is distorted because it does not count people who have stopped looking for jobs.  Many people sat on the sideline during President Obama’s terms, thereby artificially reducing the unemployment rate.  Some came off the sideline in the first couple of years of Trump’s administration, making his low unemployment rate more impressive.  (From November 2008, when President Obama was elected, to November 2016 when President Trump was elected, the labor force participation rate dropped from 65.9% to 62.7%.  In February 2020, it was 63.4%.  Under President Obama, the unemployment rate dropped 2.1% but the non-participant rate rose 3.2%.)

3.      Fracking was a key stimulant of jobs under President Obama and improved our independence and economy.  President Obama opposed fracking.   

      3-D printing and drones were other job stimuli.  President Obama slowed our drone industry because he wanted to develop standards first.  That would have been a good idea if the standards had been created in timely fashion.  Other countries benefited more than the USA relative to drone jobs because we were hamstrung.

Trump's deregulation stimulated jobs.  Some of the deregulation was not good, but a lot of it appears to have been good.  It encouraged the business sector to expand, invest and hire.

President Trump reined in some government actions which violated due process.  Prior to Trump, increasingly (it seemed), when an administration department would bring a complaint against a private business or person, that department would serve as prosecutor, judge and jury.

I don’t know how much the tax law helped employment.  I favor high taxes, but I want to lower national debt, which is much higher than generally advertised because off-ledger items are often ignored.  Our nation rebelled against taxation without representation, so why do we continually create huge debt for future generations?  Who represents their interests?

While I’m not a fan of President Trump’s tax law, I studied it when it came out and concluded that it was significantly better than I would have expected.  For example, because of the innovative approach for S-Corporations, I did not benefit from it, which suited me fine.  Democrats criticized even things they had previously espoused.

A Biden administration seems likely to go back to practices which have harmed job growth.

Vice President Joe Biden and the Democrats cater to their teacher union supporters handing another issue to Trump by opposing Charter Schools.  Had we promoted Charter Schools historically, the gap between minority income and Caucasian income would be much lower today.  I think this is a big issue and should carry more weight in the inner city.

Ex-Vice President Biden is hugely more capable of providing moral leadership to help restore a cooperative culture in our society.  However, I fear he may not live up to my hopes in that regard.  He is a “nice guy” but his desire to be liked may lead him to respond to those who shout the most.  Thus, I fear he will bend too far left, as demonstrated by the Democratic platform.  In the past I wrote “President Obama’s misdeeds led to a wave of Tea Party people being elected.  Now Trump has led to some socialists being elected.”  That negative Trump effect is still surging and moderates as well as conservatives should fear it.  Even liberals should fear it.

It has surprised me that the pandemic has not resulted in the following two points being recognized:

·        The extraordinary expenses our government incurs because of the pandemic underscores the importance of fiscal prudence.  We should have built reserves that we could tap into for these expenses.  We should be expecting to revert to an economy which would amortize the pandemic costs.  Why is this not being recognized?

·        The pandemic put a focus on jobs and spotlighted the fragility of business.  Why hasn’t the public become more appreciation of business owners and more tolerant of profit?

I think highly of idealistic people, as they want to accomplish good things and are willing to sacrifice.  Unfortunately, many are oblivious to the principle that ‘Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely’.  They tend to believe that if people with their attitudes could make all the decisions, we’d have a wonderful world.  Eventually, many politicians believe that good can occur only if they are in charge.  That leads to “end justifies the means” thinking which is used to justify corrupt behavior.  It can also lead to too much government control.

I, on the other hand, am a firm believer in Separation of Powers (Checks and Balances).  My Separation of Powers blog addresses the issue more broadly than you might anticipate.  We need government to monitor the situation and call out the people/entities who do wrong.  When the government is in charge, we lose not only creative competition, but also that important independent watchdog.

Similarly, I am a strong believer in free speech and the importance of having political discussions with family, friends and associates.  If we eschew such conversations, we shut off opportunities to learn, to teach, to gain respect for each other and to find solutions.  The left supports big government and does not support free speech.  Governmental principles are less important to Democrats than accomplishing their goals.  It is reasonable for conservatives to fear big government and loss of rights under a “progressive” regime.

I believe climate change is an important issue, but as with many issues, I am not prepared to support either extreme.  The left lacks a coherent transition plan or safety net.  To me, a carbon tax seems to be a good idea and possibly some capital gains tax breaks for renewable energy.

Note: Health care is not a major election vote determinant for me.  I wrote a paper more than 10 years ago regarding health care, noting that any of three radically different systems could work if they followed key principles.  Unfortunately, some of those principles have not been followed.  So, my concern is not the philosophy (even if a program is not my preferred approach, we could make it work), it is how it is structured.  For example, the false funding of Medicaid expansion is a travesty, regardless of whether Medicaid expansion is good or bad.

While I’ll much prefer Vice President Biden’s negotiating style, I’m leery of his likely results.  We have had a string of presidents who have been weak international negotiators, as evidenced by our failure to halt the existential threat of nuclear weapon proliferation.  As I’ve written in the past, we’ve encouraged the proliferation of nuclear weapons by rewarding countries which develop them.  I opposed the Iran nuclear deal but also opposed withdrawing from it.  However, now that we have withdrawn, I would not re-enter such a deal.  The world needs to take a strong collective stance against new entities developing nuclear weapons.  President Obama’s Iran deal established a new principle that it is OK for countries to develop nuclear arm capability.

Although President Trump's self-touted negotiation skill has not been seen much during his Presidency, he made real progress relative to Israeli-Arab peace in the Middle East and relative to the Kosovo-Serbia hostilities.  His opponents have tried downplay such progress rather than embrace it or at least acknowledge it.

Throughout the Trump administration, I’ve told my liberal friends that the bias, distortions and lies of the media and the Resistance make it harder to persuade conservatives to abandon Trump.  They have dismissed my arguments entirely, basking in rhetoric that makes them feel morally superior and energizes their strongest supporters.

It would be much better if Democrats paid attention to the reasons people vote for President Trump and if they respected those people and took steps to engage in positive discussion with them.

The desire on both sides of the aisle to divide us and energize extremists will continue to haunt us as long as voters don't punish such behavior.

Selecting Judges for The Supreme Court

 My position on selecting judges for the Supreme Court is as follows:

  1. It is the President’s responsibility and prerogative to appoint a candidate.
  2. The Senate’s role is to confirm.  I think that means to approve the candidate unless there are strong non-partisan reasons to deny confirmation.
  3. Judges should be selected based on their ability to analyze difficult issues reflecting conflicting principles and to come to a well-defined and well-reasoned position they can articulate well.
  4. It is important to have diversity on the Supreme Court as elsewhere.  The most important aspect regarding diversity is how an individual’s mind works.  Such diversity is related to age, ethnicity/culture, gender, experience, etc.  It shouldn’t be tied to race, but race adds diversity because of our frailties as humans.
  5. I am NOT in favor of litmus tests.  Declaring their position on a litmus test case can hinder their ability to later be a judge.  Supreme Court judges need to discuss political theories and interpretations with each other and be able to identify unique aspects in a case which might cause a decision to differ with what they, or watchers, might have expected their position to be.
  6. With our increasing life span, it would make sense to me that we stagger judicial appointments with the intent of having 18-year terms.  (Originally, I suggested 20-years, but the proposal of 18 years is superior because, barring deaths, each 4-year Presidential term would have two Supreme Court nominations.)

I am not a Supreme Court historian, but my impression was that Supreme Court nominations worked effectively and appropriately until Robert Bork's nomination in 1987.  At the time, I was not a fan of Bork.  I disagreed with his action in the Saturday Night Massacre.  But he seemed clearly to have a bright, discerning mind, to judge on principle, and to explain his positions clearly.  He seemed eminently qualified.  I believe the campaign against him was blatantly partisan and dishonest.  Although I definitely leaned Democratic at the time, I was upset at the Democratic attack on Bork.

Since then, character assassination has become an increasing ploy by the opposition party during Supreme Court nominations.

Another new bad faith ploy arose during the Bush administration.  Democrats filibustered numerous judge appointments below the Supreme Court level, not based on the nominees' qualifications but simply to obstruct for partisan purposes.

In the Obama administration, Republicans copied that maneuver, until the Democrats (Harry Reid) suspended filibuster rights for appellate nominees.  Some people say two wrongs make a right; I'm reluctant to adopt that position as it is an "end justifies the means position" and a very slippery slope to on-going abuse.

Mitch McConnell had warned Harry Reid that voting out a filibuster by majority vote was a bad idea.  He extended the 'no-filibuter' to Supreme Court judges, another nakedly political move.  (Now, Democrats want to eliminate all filibusters.  I think that is a dangerous step.  We’re careening through a series of “wrongs” in reaction to previous “wrongs” rather than gravitating back to what is proper.  To the degree that the filibuster is being abused, we should address the underlying problems rather than eliminate the filibuster.)

Then the Republicans blocked Merrick Garland.  I strongly opposed their action and still do.  I’ve heard basically two arguments to justify it:

·      1) One theory is that when the President and Senate are of the same party, the voters have voted for a consistent view of qualified Supreme Court justices, but when the President and Senate are of different parties, the people have not voted clearly.  Thus in the later situation, it is appropriate for the Senate to defer voting on a Supreme Court judge until the next administration.  I disagree with this theory because:

o   I believe the Senate’s role is confirmation, not selection.

o   People have rarely voted for Senators with Supreme Court judges in mind.  (An exception was the Trump-Clinton election, in which  many people voted for Trump because they felt that separation of powers was being undermined by the Supreme Court's encroachment of the legislative role and that Hillary Clinton's list of litmus tests was damaging.  Trump's idea of naming potential nominees was effective.)

o   There are so many other issues in Presidential and Senatorial elections, especially as Senatorial elections are statewide not national.  Ascribing Supreme Court mandates to these elections seems fanciful.

·     2) The second theory is simply a power theory.  If we have the votes, we can do what we want.  You won't be surprised that I don’t agree with that stance.

I sympathize with the Democrats’ bitterness relative to Garland.  I would have liked them to call a truce.  As they had initiated most of the past Supreme Court nomination abuses, they would have been in a good position to do so.  They, of course, chose not to do so.

When candidate Trump identified a list of seemingly highly-qualified potential judges in 2016, the Democrats responded with a wanton attack on the Federalist Society.  The Society leans strongly conservative but as part of those principles they promote free speech and favor strong debate on issues, thereby contributing to education and a knowledgeable citizenry.  Their opponents seem less willing to defend their ideas than are the Federalists.  Few Democrats are concerned by the biased education occurring on college campuses. 

As noted above, on the Democratic side, candidate Hillary Clinton did not identify potential judges but rather identified a list of litmus tests that she would apply to any candidates for the Supreme Court.  I found that to be alarming.  (Note: although I favored Trump's Supreme Court approach, I did not vote for Trump.  As I was in a non-contested state, I felt I had the luxury and responsibility to reject both candidates for multiple reasons, so I voted for Evan McMullen.  Although I felt strongly about the Supreme Court issue, it did not determine my vote.  As noted above, generally interpreting elections as Supreme Court mandates is simply a sound byte intended to distract voters.)

While his opponents claim that President Trump has stacked the court, I believe Trump improved the balance of the court.  An indicator of whether a court is stacked is whether judges vote uniformly.  Clearly, the “liberal” judges vote more as a bloc than do conservative judges.  In my opinion, it was the Democrats who stacked the Supreme Court.

Some of my liberal friends would likely argue that the reason the conservatives don’t vote as a bloc is because sometimes the “rightness” of the liberals is so overwhelming that one or another conservative must vote his/her conscience.  That perspective is mired in the myopic presumption that conservatives are generally not voting their conscience.

I think the liberal judges believe in a “living Constitution” and are more willing to find ways to interpret the Constitution to support what they think the law should be.  Because they have relatively more interest in the result than in the legal argument, they are more willing to buy into each other’s justifications for their decisions.

The conservative judges are more likely “strict Constructionists” but not entirely uniform in their interpretations, particularly when it comes to prioritizing competing principles.  I applauded when Judge Gorsuch stated that a good judge won’t like all of his/her decisions because the law may not support his/her personal preferences.  It is partly (but not necessarily entirely) because of their different philosophical beliefs that they don’t vote as a block.  This diversity is good for the court.  We should be happy when different perspectives are voiced and considered collegially, then resolved in a vote.

Furthermore, several Democrats have advocated stacking the Supreme Court by expanding it radically.  It is of great concern to me that there are so many “the ends justify the means” believers in our society, who support such a radically inappropriate agenda.  Expanding the Supreme Court in this fashion severely undermines our critical Separation of Powers because it creates a precedent that the Executive and Legislative branches will conspire to shape the Supreme Court to serve a current administration's goals.  Subverting the Supreme Court is extremely inappropriate and dangerous!

Supreme Court nomination arguments, impeachment arguments and so many other political arguments reek with hypocrisy on both sides of the aisle as politicians and their followers take 180˚ different positions depending on whether a Democrat or Republican is involved.

As the Republicans misbehaved last time, I was hoping that the Ruth Bader Ginsberg vacancy would unfold as follows:

  •         President Trump makes a nomination.  That is his responsibility.
  •         It comes to the Senate.  It is their responsibility to vote.
  •         A number of Republicans in the Senate vote to defer as a sign of good faith to try to end the politicization of Supreme Court nominees.  I figured that Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Mitt Romney might take such a stance and hoped that a handful of others would do so, so no Republican could be singled out as the cause of a deferral.  Collins and Murkowski took that stance, but Murkowski has since wavered.  Romney took the appropriate stance that the Senate should vote but I am not aware that he has indicated how he would vote.

As noted above, the Democrats have a strong argument regarding the Merrick Garland incident.  However, they don't trumpet that argument.  Instead they continually say that the decision should be left to the voters, which is a 180 degree reversal of their position four years ago.  For those of you who don't think the media is biased, count how often Republican hypocrisy on this issue is appropriately cited to how often Democratic hypocrisy on this issue is appropriately cited.

Former VP Biden has shown political cowardice by refusing to divulge his position on this key issue.  He is afraid of alienating either his radical left supporters or moderates like me who intend to vote for him.  He claims that if he announced his position, it would be a headline issue.  If the media was doing its job properly, the headline from the first 2020 Presidential debate should have been "President Trump refuses to repudiate right-wing extremists; former VP Biden refuses to repudiate Supreme Court expansion".  Without citing the hypocrisy, Jake Tapper did an excellent job in exposing the Biden campaign on October 11; see Tapper pressing Supreme Court issues.

Although I'm resisting Biden's strong pressure that my presidential vote should be determined by the Supreme Court, I'm now leaning to cast my Senate vote on that issue.  I had intended to vote for the Democratic candidate for Senate, but she has refused to disclose her position on expanding the Supreme Court and on public charter schools.  When I ask those questions, I get an email that says "We look forward to reviewing your email."  But a response never comes.  I hope Biden's cowardice contributes to the Republicans retaining the Senate to avoid Supreme Court expansion.  (Sadly, in our current extremist environment, it may be best not to vest both houses and the Presidency in a single party.)

However, if Amy Barrett becomes a Supreme Court justice and if President Biden wins and the Democrats control the Senate, I could tolerate adding (only) two seats to the Supreme Court.  Had Merrick Garland and Amy Barrett both been named to the Supreme Court, we'd have 5 Republican nominees and 4 Democratic nominees.  But because the Republicans blocked Merrick Garland, Amy Barrett would tilt the composition to 6 Republican nominees and 3 Democratic nominees.  If  a President Biden added 2 Democratic nominees, we'd be back to a situation of one more Republican nominee than Democratic nominee.

However, it seems clear that the Democrats' Supreme Court expansion goal is not simply to reverse the Merrick Garland wrong, but rather to restore the temporary imbalance that distorted the constitutional separation of powers by turning the Court into a legislative body.  The Democrats want to expand the Supreme Court so they can, through the Supreme Court, once again impose legislation that they can't get through the legislature.  Supreme Court expansion  for such a politically partisan purpose (intended to undermine the constitutional separation of powers) is wrong, in my view.

More fundamentally, some Democrats have been threatening the Supreme Court to pressure the justices to serve the Democrats' interests.  As noted above, expanding the Supreme Court severely undermines the Separation of Powers by establishing a precedent that the Executive and Legislative branches will conspire to shape the Supreme Court to serve a current administration's goals. 

We need to reform practices regarding Congress to reduce the partisan discord, rather than to exacerbate it.

Separation of Powers

This was originally written in September 2020.  I updated it in 2024 to add comments about non-compete provisions, filibuster and the Speaker Project.

 From my perspective, the key to the success of the USA has been effective separation of powers (checks and balances).  Power must not only be vigilantly assigned in a way that creates checks and balances, it must also be exercised in such fashion.

To clarify/underscore my point, I think separation of powers has been more critical than democratic voting.  Public elections are a form of separation of powers.

Below, I identify many aspects of our society which thrive with proper separation of powers.  I’d be interested in your thoughts on these issues and what can be done to assure proper separation of powers going forward.

Separation of federal government powers between the Executive, Congress and the Supreme Court is an obvious example.  In my lifetime, Congress has failed to maintain its power.  Both the Executive Branch and Supreme Court have assumed power that was not intended to be theirs.  Unfortunately, it seems that most politicians and citizenry believe “the end justifies the means”.  Hence, despite excoriating some behavior by their opponents, they support the same disruptive behavior by their allies.

On pages 4-5, I mention reforms which could help maintain federal separation of powers.

Separation of powers between federal, state and local governments is also important.  Our education focused on states’ rights as a defense of slavery, which naturally tilted me toward central (federal), rather than state, power.  Although I think I vaguely understood that there was more to the issue, I was a strong supporter of central government because it seemed more efficient to enact laws at the federal level rather than each state and fairer to have the same laws apply to everyone, regardless of the jurisdiction in which they resided.

Now, I better understand the foibles of humans.  Although I believe people are generally good and see reasons to respect almost everyone I encounter or hear about, I’ve learned to appreciate the adage “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”.

I’ve always thought a benevolent dictatorship can be the most effective short-term government.  In a crisis, it can be helpful to give a leader power to align everyone to solve the crisis.  However, a benevolent dictatorship inevitably degenerates, generally during the term of the initial dictator, but certainly when successors follow.  My actuarial career was a good choice for me because I take a long-term view to most issues.  I admit to being more concerned about process than many people, as protecting appropriate processes protects the separation of powers and our individual rights.  “The ends justifies the means” is a scary slippery slope to me.

Centralized power is important for many issues.  I note only one such issue here: environmental practices within a state affect other states because wind and rivers cross state lines.  Thus, a federal EPA is clearly appropriate.  But if the federal government abdicates its responsibilities, states should be able to address those issues within their borders.  (A difference of opinion is not necessarily abdication.)

A key problem results from central government collection of money from, and redistribution of money to, states.  As the federal government expropriates and appropriates money, state politicians (including Congress) campaign by promising to get federal revenues for their state, inevitably undermining the efficiency I anticipated at the federal level.  The result is ‘bridges to nowhere’ and other unwise expenditures.  Furthermore, the federal government sometimes uses its funding to coerce states.

Secondly, whereas voters recognize the cost they will pay for local government projects, federal money is primarily ‘other people’s money’.  Hence spending federal dollars is easy.  In addition to campaigning to bring money to their state, politicians make campaign promises to spend federal money on projects that benefit various subsets of voters.  Our federal debt is out of control.  Few people realize how severe the situation is because a lot of expenditures are off-ledger (not in the budget) or understated with “cliff financing” analysis (because of the uncertainty of long-term projections, social security and Medicare projections assume the programs will end in 65 years, ignoring liabilities that will exist at that time).

Our federal debt is atrocious taxation without representation.  We foist these huge debts onto future generations who had no opportunity to express themselves relative to these burdens.  We expect future generations to take care of us in our old age, to raise our grandchildren, to foster a vibrant economy and to retire the huge debt burden we place on them.  Alas, there is a great imbalance in power between current adults and future generations.

I’m not expert in federal/state/local issues, but some additional aspects that come to mind are that the individual voter feels disenfranchised at the federal level for two reasons: 1) Her vote has an infinitesimal weight in national elections; and 2) National elections involve so many issues that politicians do not get clear messages from elections.  Substantially different issues such as abortion, national defense, budget, economy, etc. all are reduced to a combined single vote.  At the local level, this is less of a problem because of referendums and because a local election is more likely to be dominated by a particular issue.

There is also value to having states serve as a crucible.  If an approach works well for one state, other states (or sometimes the federal government) can adopt it or a modified version.  Having different situations in various states or locales can increase diversity, allowing citizens to live in a location that best serves their preferences.  (There is tension here with civil rights issues.  Determining the proper power at particular government levels can be difficult.)

Separation of powers between government, business, NGOs (religious organizations and other non-profits) the press/media and citizens is crucial too.  In many circumstances, the government has an important role akin to an arbiter or referee, ensuring fair procedures.  When the government is put in charge, this vital role is sacrificed.

In discussions, I often accept as a premise that people working in non-profits, academia or government are more ethical than people working in business.  I’m not saying that is necessarily true, just that I’m willing to accept it as a premise when making the following point.  Even if it is true, it does not mean that the actions of people in non-profits or regulators are more ethical.  Some people in those areas view themselves as virtuous and can’t imagine that anything they would do would be improper.  Thus, they may not question their actions.  When they are placed in charge of programs, I’ve seen some people be oblivious to their unethical behavior.  Businesspeople seem more likely to question their behavior, perhaps because they realize they have some conflicts or perhaps because they fear being caught.  This issue relates back to the ‘power corrupts’ issue.  Politicians’ belief in their causes morphs over time into believing that their personal election is critical.  Corrupt behavior is justified (or simply overlooked) because it increases their chances of election (‘end justifies the means’).

When government has a monopoly, there is less competition, may be more groupthink (indoctrination and conformity) and possible budget restrictions, all of which can reduce innovation.  There can also be less transparency as to how things are funded.

When government runs something, there is less tax revenue, because government (unlike business) is not taxed.  This lost revenue at various levels does not appear to be reflected in cited legislative costs.

When the government absorbs control, the number of government workers increases.  Government workers have incentives to vote for the incumbent party, which undermines separation of powers relative to the electorate.  We should separate the roles of employer and voter as much as possible.

See earlier comments about national debt.

Government-run efforts can dim citizen initiative.  My relatives in France have been unable to understand why I donate to charity.  From their perspective, “the government does that.”  Similarly, “you can’t fight City Hall”.

If businesses get too strong, a lack of balance can occur.  We need government to monitor restraint of trade and related issues.

However, many government people believe their actions are solely responsible for what happens, and they work to make that the case.  For example, many incentives (example: solar energy) are not retroactive.  The government sees no reason to reward people who exhibited personal responsibility by doing the right thing.  Citizens are taught not to take personal responsibility but rather to wait until properly instructed by the government, a detrimental shift of power.  Government efforts that undermine people taking personal responsibility are harmful.

State employees have told me that something is wrong with their statistics because people whose long-term care insurance ran out do not all go on Medicaid right away, even if eligible.  They are convinced that these people should (hence do) go on Medicaid, so their statistics must be wrong.  They cannot imagine that people would choose not to do what they expect them to do.  But, for very good reasons, some people intentionally choose not to go on Medicaid.

In numerous situations federal agencies have served as prosecutor, judge and jury, a stark violation of due process and separation of power.  It disturbs me that most people seem to either endorse such abuse or simply ignore it.  Niemoller teaches the importance of protecting the freedom of others.  (“First, they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Socialist.  Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Trade Unionist.  Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Jew.  Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”)

If the government picks winners and losers, separation of powers is undermined.  If we want to encourage something (investment in green energy, for example), we should create tax incentives, rather than ask government to decide which organizations deserve grants.  If the government selects recipients, the government becomes more interested in that entity’s success than its competitors’ success, which can lead to mischief.  Secondly, an incentive brings a more diverse group of minds into finding solutions.

A vibrant independent non-profit sector adds value.  Some people in our country prefer the western European model in which the government allocates money to non-profits.  As I noted above in regard to strong centralized government, there can be gains in terms of efficiency and coordination, but there is a loss due to inferior separation of powers.

Separation of powers between employers, employees and the public is a difficult issue perhaps partly because unions were not envisioned in the constitution.  Unions are unquestionably important, but they can be given too much power.  ‘Right-to-work’ is very appealing, but I also recognize the risk of allowing people to presume that others will fund the cost of their interests.

Public entity strikes are troublesome, as Franklin Roosevelt noted.  Public unions wield both employee and voter power, which are best separated.  During public employee strikes, the public (who employ public employees) is not well-represented because of the conflict of interest when elected officials negotiate with voter-employees who can influence their reelection.

It is healthy that traditionally strong union supporters are recognizing that police unions have harmed the public by protecting police officers who should have been fired because of improper behavior.

Similarly, teachers’ unions have protected teachers who should have been fired.  I have always been a huge fan of public education, but when I was a teacher, I learned to not be enamored of teacher unions. 

Hopefully, positive outcomes will result from our current attention to economic disparity by race.  When I look back at the past 50 years, the #1 thing we could have done to reduce income disparities by race seems extremely clear: improve public education in the inner city.  Had we provided better education in the inner city, poor residents would have entered more lucrative careers, advanced more easily in their chosen career path, etc.  Their competence and their improved economic fortune would have resulted in greater inter-race respect and more integration in all aspects of life.  Improved education would have benefited inner city residents of all races.

Fortunately, we have clear models of successful inner-city education.  Sadly, a lack of separation of power has thwarted success.  Public charter schools (which began in 1992) have had tremendous success educating students from families with low educational background and low economic success.  But teachers’ unions have managed to stifle competition from public charter schools by exercising their electoral muscle to influence government to thwart or limit charter schools.

Two main success factors for public charter schools relate to assignment of separation of power and personal responsibility:

1.            Charter school principals have personal responsibility and the authority (power) to select staff and create curriculum that will attract and retain parents and students.

2.            Unsuccessful charter schools close.  Other unsuccessful public schools remain open.

A parallel obstacle has been unnecessary entrance barriers to various careers, which have harmed the “new kids on the block”, hence immigrants and minorities.  The state of Florida recently eliminated many entrance barriers which were created to protect current purveyors of services.

Non-compete provisions have a role but are being abused, by being applied to a broad swath of employees.  I would expect to support legislation in this regard, but I obviously do not support unilateral banning of non-compete provisions by the executive branch.  I do NOT agree that ALL non-compete provisions should be banned.

When I worked at an insurance company, we had repeated debates about ‘who are customer is’.  Is it the broker or the insurance purchaser?  I never understood why we had to answer that question.  When I made decisions, I considered the impact on shareholders, company management, my staff and other employees, brokers, insureds, beneficiaries, our suppliers (such as reinsurers), etc.  Depending on the issue, their respective weights varied in my decision process.  I preached to my staff that they should do the same and hold me to it.  Management did not appreciate my approach (they preferred “he who has the gold rules”; that is, an employee’s client is the person to whom he/she reports).  Although I am disinclined to legislate such requirements, I think the concept of requiring employee representation on Boards of Directors is worth discussion and perhaps experimentation. 

Class action lawsuits are important to maintain balance between businesses and consumers.  However, an attorney friend has properly referred to some class action lawsuits as ‘legalized extortion’.  Flimsy suits are filed, then the attorney approaches the defendant, suggesting a settlement to avoid the cost of litigation.  The defendant may be convinced of innocence but accepts a settlement which costs less than the anticipated litigation.  Class action members get very little value from the settlement.  The attorney is rewarded, hence encouraged to file more suits solely to negotiate a settlement.

As examples, I have gotten checks for less than $1 as a result of class-action investment litigation.  I spoke with an executive who experienced a shareholder class action lawsuit for failure to disclose relevant information.  Not long after that, he was sued for having disclosed too much information.

In electoral campaigns, power is unbalanced between incumbents and non-incumbents resulting in pressure for term limits.  Although term limits tame the undue power of incumbents, I would prefer not to remove our citizens’ right to keep electing a superb representative.  My crazy solution seems extremely unlikely to be implemented: I would give non-incumbents a pre-determined percentage of the votes to partly offset the advantages of an incumbent.  The percentage of pre-determined votes would increase depending on how many terms the incumbent has served. 

Money in politics is another form of imbalance of power.  Public funding of elections seems like a great idea, but I don’t know that it is practical.  I apologize for not having a more constructive comment in this regard but wanted to acknowledge the issue.

The electoral college was a big-state/small-state compromise to balance power acceptably.  Although I understand the reasons why people would prefer to make changes to the electoral college, I don’t see a compelling reason to cancel a reasonable agreement.

Similarly, the filibuster is intended to protect minority political opinions.  I like the filibuster, but definitely believe that people should be required to maintain speaking in person.  I'm amenable to some reforms of the filibuster.  

Power of the individual.  We should protect the power of the individual by protecting free speech.  Fresh and perhaps discordant ideas have historically been critical to progress.  We must also encourage people to communicate with those who have different political opinions so ideas can be properly vetted.  In such communication, we learn, we teach, we get to understand each other better and we can find compromises or ways to co-exist with our differences.

The lack of free speech on college campuses, the lack of political diversity among the faculty and the “cancel” culture are troublesome.  High school and college professors have significant impact on the political impressions of our young voters.  We need to assure that they get balanced education.

Identity politics also crushes individuality and reinforces divisions in our society.  We should cherish our differences but also our common values and goals as a community.  Why should we strait-jacket people’s ability to think for themselves by pressuring them to vote based on their identity.  Sounds like gang indoctrination to me.

Related to identity voting is an assumption that people should vote based on their self-interest.  We used to teach that people should vote based on principles and what they felt was best for the country.  Some people still do so, particularly idealists.  But even idealists can encourage others to do identity voting.

Voters must be informed if they are to wield their power properly.  It is our responsibility to get educated on the issues, to educate each other and to find ways to improve general education on issues.

As noted earlier, our elections jumble many issues together, making it hard for an election to serve as a mandate on a particular issue.  We would do well to seek ways to make elections more meaningful.  Local propositions serve that purpose well.

Balance between long-term and short-term view is lacking in our society, I think (not surprising as an actuary).  Political and business analyses seem to have shortened time frames, partly because the pace of change is so quick that today’s decisions may have a shorter time impact.  It would be good if Boards of Directors, shareholders and voters pressed business leaders and politicians to take a longer view. The employee representation on Boards of Directors mentioned above is supposed to help address this issue, but it is not entirely clear to me that it will do so effectively; its impact could vary significantly from one case to another.

Possible reforms include:

1.     1. Fact-checking of campaign statements

I’d like every TV, radio, movie, print and social media ad (etc.) to bear a unique code to facilitate voter research of the ad’s claims.  For decades, most ads in competitive political elections make me less likely to vote for the candidate.  Even a true statement (such as “my opponent voted against this bill”) is generally misleading because it does not explain why the opponent voted against the bill.  Often, the opponent’s vote was instigated by another, unmentioned provision in the bill.  With such a code, citizens could become more informed voters.

2. Ranked-order voting

Ranked-order voting gives voters more control and helps third-party candidates without distorting election results.  Currently, voters fear that voting for a third-party candidate might cause their less-desired major-party candidate to get elected.  Ranked-order voting solves that problem.  There are a number of alternative voting structures that have various advantages and disadvantages but ranked-order voting is clearly one of the best and it is the only one with a realistic chance of success, being utilized to an increasing degree across the USA.

3.      If a majority of representatives or senators wants to address a bill, it should be addressed.

Our federal legislatures have developed a practice of blocking a bill for discussion if it does not have the support of a majority of that body’s majority party.  Thus, as few as 25% to 30% of the legislators have been granted veto power, which is very damaging.  Bill discussion should be mandatory if a majority of the legislative body supports discussion (even if that majority is comprised of a minority of the majority party plus a majority of the minority party).

 4.      When a bill is passed by one house of Congress, it should be debated and voted upon, in timely fashion, by the other House.

 5.      When the President makes a nomination that requires Senate confirmation, that nomination should be processed in timely fashion.

 6.      When the President introduces legislation, both houses of Congress should deal with it.

7.      Nancy Pelosi famously said Congress needed to pass the Affordable Care Act so that Congress could learn what the ACA means.

 When she was criticized for that comment, I defended her on the mistaken grounds that she had misspoke.  I subsequently learned that this is a major way in which Congress relinquishes authority.  Bills are complicated and discussion of all the details could be endless.  So, Congress passes legislation assigning responsibility to the Executive Branch to define the law’s meaning.

 Asking the Executive Branch to define the law makes sense, but after the Executive Branch does so, the proposed law should come back to Congress for an up/down vote.

 8.      Laws should be passed to protect due process when a federal agency levies charges against an individual or company.

9.   Attorneys filing class action lawsuits should be held responsible for the defendants’ legal costs if the case is determined to have been inappropriate.  

10.  See The Speaker Project for some good ideas.