No Labels' "Nightmare on Main Street"

For many decades, I’ve said that, as an actuary, I have no need for horror movies because reading annual OASDI actuarial reports (Social Security and Medicare financial status) is incredibly scary.

Former Senator Henry Bellmon (R-OK) and former Rep. Robert Giaimo (D-CT) created the Committee for a Responsible Budget in 1981.  It has a Fix the Debt campaign.

Seymour Durst created a US Debt Clock in NYC in 1989.  The wonderful US Debt Clock website (created in 2006) shows much other data including USA total debt ($107 trillion, including personal debt) and state debt.  I’ve always felt it understates the problem because it ignores our underfunded entitlements.  If you assume Social Security and Medicare will continue forever “as is”, we’re $95 trillion in the hole ($886,000 per USA taxpayer), not $39 trillion.

Heroes like Paul Tsongas spotlighted our economic problems (he founded the Concord Coalition in 1992), but most voters and most other politicians have continually ignored the voices of reason.

Bill Clinton gets credit for “balancing the budget”, but if you reflected the increase in underfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities, we were still falling farther behind.

In 2008, Pete Peterson created Peter G. Peterson Foundation which has banged the drum loudly regarding our unsustainable direction.

The same year, we elected a president (Barack Obama) who promised to address the issue.  In 2010, he appointed Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson to co-chair the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.  Their WONDERFUL December 2010 report gave me hope.  I loved some of the proposals and hated others, but it was necessary to support the full, well-balanced package to avert catastrophe.  Sadly, President Obama abandoned the effort.

In my 2021 blog (10 Obvious(?) Lessons from the Pandemic), the first point was “To be able to spend lots of money in such emergencies, we need surpluses in other years.”  Alas, our politicians have continued to overspend dramatically.

No Labels just published a description of what could happen: Nightmare on Main Street, which I have attached.  An 884-word synopsis was published here.  Our unsustainable path will lead to disaster.   Your comments are welcome!

Government Shutdowns

In the latter half of 2025, the Democrats decided to shut down the government because they were unable to pass legislation they desired (the extension of COVID-inspired temporary increases of government subsidies for health care premiums).

Closing the government because you got out-voted is a terrible action to take.  It undermines our government, using extortion to try to get your way.  It sets a terrible precedent that could keep the government from ever getting funded because there are always a lot of bills which one side or the other would have liked to go “the other way”.

Ironically, in this case, the Democrats were objecting to a law they had drafted and passed during President Biden’s administration.  Regardless of who passed the unliked law, an unliked vote is NOT proper grounds to close the government.

However, our Executive Branch has broken international law (killing people hanging on to a destroyed boat in the Caribbean) and US law (civil rights violations by ICE).  As an effort to restrain an Executive Branch that is violating law, closing down the government seems clearly appropriate to me.  Why wouldn’t you stop funding an entity that is not doing its job properly?

If you believe that the Executive Branch has reformed and won’t commit the violations cited in the previous paragraph, the justification of closing the government becomes more blurred.  Unfortunately, there is strong reason to doubt that the Executive Branch has mended its ways.  Shutting down the government for stronger assurances seems justified.

If they believe the government has mended its ways, the Democrats might argue that a government shutdown is appropriate because the Executive Branch is deporting people who have been here many years without having violated laws (other than their immigrant status) and have been contributing to the country as parents, students, employees, and taxpayers.  The deportations are actions that the Executive Branch has taken without Congressional authorization.  From my perspective, a better approach would be to stimulate a vote in Congress.

Sadly, Congress has rules that sometimes block votes even when a majority of the members of the House or Senate want to vote on them.  These rules should be ended.  While these rules are in place, the “solution” I recommend in the previous paragraph may be unavailable.  Under these circumstances, the propriety of a government shutdown is less clear to me.