Why I have been Pessimistic Re: the Future of the USA

 People seem to consider me to be an optimist because I see many ways we can improve and work to accomplish them.

However, a more appropriate perspective is that I see myself on a ship that is sinking and am trying to make things as good as possible for as long as possible.

I’ve always been pessimistic about our country’s future for the following reasons.  Hopefully, I will continue to try to prove myself wrong.

 

General principles

1.      All great previous civilizations have failed; so that is likely to be our destiny too.

2.      I innately understood the concept of “gravitation to the mean” at a young age.

 

Emotionally, I understood the foibles of humankind

3.      The most meaningful quote I’ve ever seen is from Niemoller: “First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Socialist.  Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Trade Unionist.  Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Jew.  Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”

4.      Another is from Lord Acton, paraphrasing earlier statements by others: “Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.”  This one I did not understand until adulthood.

5.      For years, when I’ve expressed concern about situations happening elsewhere, some people have responded “That could never happen here.”  I’ve told them that I was tempted to grab them and shake them because their attitude increased the likelihood that such things could happen here.

6.      Long ago, I realized that native-born USA citizens take our liberties for granted.  A great value of immigrants is that they understand the value of, and the vulnerability of, freedom of speech and religion and economic freedom.

 

Once we lose our freedoms, it can be hard to recover them

7.      Surveillance technology can make it very difficult to overthrow an oppressive regime (consider China).  See George Orwell’s “1984”. “Back to the Future, II” may serve as another warning.

8.      It is very hard to get everyone to agree on when it is time to overthrow an oppressive regime.  The American Revolution was an unusual event, and, at that time, things moved more slowly.  I don’t think a rebellion could muster so slowly in today’s world.

9.      The gun debate in the USA is tied to the issue of the citizenry being able to defend itself.  But even with guns, we can’t defend against the government’s technology and weaponry.

10.   The Queen of the Netherlands persuaded her country in the 1930s that gun control/registration was a great idea that would increase their safety.  But then the Nazis stormed in, found the list of guns and were able to go house-to-house to confiscate the guns.  As a result, the Dutch underground had no guns.  Optimists who see the world in rose-colored glasses respond that the Dutch were freed nonetheless.  But they were freed only because other countries with powerful weapons resisted the Germans.

 

Specific issues:

1.      For at least 60 years, I’ve been concerned about our education system.  In the latter part of the last century, people would start agreeing that our K-12 system was inadequate but express comfort that we had the best university education in the world.  I’d counter that a lot of the outstanding students in our universities came from other countries and then stayed in the USA, helping us greatly.  But I expected that brain drain to reverse, and once it does, it is hard to turn around.

2.      I’ve blogged about my distress regarding Nuclear Weapons.  Our policies have stimulated the spread of nuclear weapons.  Beyond the catastrophic existential risk, note how that threat has dramatically limited our defense of Ukraine.

11.   I was skeptical of Glasnost and the “Arab Spring”.  I felt we did not do enough to support the opening of Russia.  On the other hand, I was amazed (and excited) by the downfall of East Germany, which provides hope that I’m wrong.

12.   Watching “Forrest Gump” in 1994, I trembled with fear and have never gotten over it.  I saw pictures of Forrest Gump with JFK and with Marilyn Monroe, etc.  If pictures could be falsified in such fashion, how will people be able to tell what is true?  It is no surprise that we can now also create tapes of people saying whatever words we want to put in their mouth.  Historically, we lived in small towns and knew who to trust and who was a liar.  (That’s why juries of your peers were successful.)  Now that is no longer the case, so we’ve relied on concrete documentation, which sadly is no longer reliable.

13.   Advances like biotech, robots and AI obviously can pose a variety of threats.

 

Politically

14.   When I was young, I was an idealist and believed that a strong central government was more efficient and more fair.  I have since better understood the problems of concentration of power.  Anselme Batbie first recorded this concept: “Not to be a républicain at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head.” 

15.   Too many people in our country idealize corrupt regimes in Central and South America, China and elsewhere.  They want us to move in the direction of those countries, ignoring the fact that people want to emigrate from those countries to the USA.  Such immigrants are appalled by some of the stupid things we are doing to harm ourselves. We should pay them heed.

16.   Our education system has indoctrinated students and thwarted free speech.    (see The Hamas-Israeli War has Exposed the Rot in the USA Education System)

17.   The key political concept that made the USA great is Separation of Powers.  Unfortunately, we’ve been concentrating power at the national level and in the President.  That has scary potential repercussions.  (“Power corrupts”)

18.   Our Political Parties have Abandoned the Center and do NOT support Democracy.  I used to think that third parties were impractical, although I voted for them at times.  I now believe a third (centrist) party is critical.