President Trump decided to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites.
The big failure here is the United Nations and also the Soviet
Union/Russia and the USA historically.
People love to talk about existential threats. Nuclear war is as existential as it
gets. Allowing proliferation of nuclear
weapons is begging for disaster.
A friend recently argued strenuously that Iran should be
allowed to have nuclear weapons because the USA has nuclear weapons. He apparently values equality over survival.
His argument reminds me of school systems which conclude
that only some students are capable of advanced studies, so they will disallow
advanced studies. They value equality
over benefits to society. (The nuclear
equality argument is worse than this education argument.)
I have long felt that if a country starts to develop nuclear
weapons, they should be given a short deadline for demolishing those efforts or
an international consortium will destroy
the site. (That link goes to my blog
on that topic.)
So, Israel initiated
what the UN or Russia and the USA should have done together.
The USA’s involvement, if successful, saved lives because otherwise,
Israel would have had to invade to complete the destruction of the sites.
Thus, President Trump’s decision makes sense.
Someone might challenge that, arguing that Iran was not
close to creating a nuclear weapon. My
read of the situation is that Iran was a nuclear threat.
Others might argue that we should have continued President
Obama’s agreement with Iran. That agreement
was never approved by Congress and wasn’t an opportunity at this time. More significantly, that agreement recognized
Iran’s right to have a nuclear weapon within 15 years.
However, I do think Congress has the authority to declare
war. The question is: How do we involve
Congress without tipping off opponents and risking USA lives? There are probably several ways to do
so. For example:
- Rather than vote to attack Iran, Congress could have voted to authorize the President to use his judgement.
- Congress could perhaps have passed a secret law to direct President Trump to unleash an attack.
President Trump alerted key Republicans but not key Democrats. That seems inappropriate.
President Trump did not seem to rush to judgement. Taking time gave Iran a chance to make concessions
to establish meaningful discussions. It
also gave Israel more time to create a safe environment for USA jets.
In addition to not involving Congress, I think Trump could
have done better in two ways:
- He threatened Iran publicly. Public threats seem aimed to puff yourself up in front of your constituents. The disadvantage is that it makes it hard for your opponent to save face. Their constituency is more likely to react negatively, if they back down. It is much better to threaten privately.
- He seemed to give Iran a longer time frame (“I’ll decide in two weeks”) then suddenly reversed.
In his speech announcing our great “success” (full text
below), Trump:
- Said “Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror.”
- Announced a “spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated”. It does not seem that we could have known yet how successful we were.
- Said “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not. Future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier.” Later in the short speech, he said ““There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight’s was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill.” Those statements contradict #1.
- Said “So many were killed by their general, Qassim Soleimani. I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue.” That seemed to be tangential, unnecessary bragging. Perhaps no harm, no foul.
- “We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before.” Not only is this hyperbole, but he earlier said we were not involved with Israel’s effort.
Full text of his comments:
“Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear
enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s
number one state sponsor of terror.
Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a
spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have
been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East,
must now make peace. If they do not. Future attacks would be far greater and a
lot easier.
For 40 years, Iran has been saying. Death to America, death
to Israel. They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing
off their legs, with roadside bombs. That was their specialty. We lost over
1,000 people and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East, and around
the world have died as a direct result of their hate in particular. So many
were killed by their general, Qassim Soleimani. I decided a long time ago that
I would not let this happen. It will not continue.
I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi
Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and
we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel. I want to
thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they’ve done. And most
importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those
magnificent machines tonight, and all of the United States military on an
operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades.
Hopefully, we will no longer need their services in this
capacity. I hope that’s so. I also want to congratulate the chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan ‘Razin’ Caine, spectacular general, and all
of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack.
With all of that being said, this cannot continue. There
will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we
have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left.
Tonight’s was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most
lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other
targets with precision, speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a
matter of minutes. There’s no military in the world that could have done what
we did tonight. Not even close. There has never been a military that could do
what took place just a little while ago.
Tomorrow, General Caine, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth
will have a press conference at 8 a.m. at the Pentagon. And I want to just
thank everybody. And, in particular, God. I want to just say, we love you, God,
and we love our great military. Protect them. God bless the Middle East. God
bless Israel and God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you.”