Why I am Pessimistic

This is a message I sent to a Yale, Class of 1969 list serv for political discussion:

I came to Yale from an inner-city high school and was clearly among the more liberal members of our class in 1965.  Despite being a liberal, I was disappointed to see that conservative attitudes were not respected in some sectors of the community.  That has gotten to be worse since then.

Although my friends and associates consider me to be optimistic (because I am quick to jump in to try to solve problems), I’ve always been pessimistic regarding the future of our country.

Politically, I’ve moved to the center, partly because of what I would consider to be my thinking maturing (some of you would obviously disagree 😊) and partly because the standard shifted significantly over time.  I’ve been more fearful of the extreme left than the extreme right because the extreme left infiltrated our institutions, suppressing conservative thought.  January 6^th seemed to confirm that the right-wing threat was less likely to succeed.  The current administration is the first time I’ve felt that the threat from the right is greater than the threat from the left.  (Note: I voted for Biden and for Harris; Progressives can disregard my comments if they’d like to, but they can’t write me off as a crazy Trump supporter.)

Why have I always been pessimistic?

1. All previous great civilizations have ended.  From an early age, I realized our citizens take our freedoms for granted, get very busy in their personal lives, and are not willing to sacrifice for our country.
2. Our education system is a huge problem, particularly in the inner city, with low expectations, low standards, lax discipline, etc.  In addition to attending an inner-city high school, I taught in South Central Los Angeles and East LA.  It is totally unconscionable to trap kids in these “schools”!!  I’m a big fan of public charter schools, particularly in the inner city, but the teachers’ unions fight them tooth and nail.  How do Progressives propose to solve this problem?  Throw more money to support terrible schools and kneecap students with high potential to reduce academic differences.  (Note not in original: People frequently respond that our K-12 may be weak, but our universities are great.  I ask them: How many of the successes in our universities relate to foreign students rather than those educated in our K-12?  For 50 years, I've feared that we'll suffer a lot when the brain drain shifts.  Alas, President Trump is working hard to reverse the brain drain.) 
3. Over time, my pessimism grew because I realized that when a revolution is necessary, it is hard to get everyone on the same wavelength at the same time.  Although a vast majority of our population believes they’d have been American revolutionaries in 1775, fewer than half the population supported it.  (I think I would have been slow to get on board but would eventually have done so.)  A slow developing revolution was much more feasible in the past.  The powers that governments have now is chilling (see how effectively the Chinese repress the Uighurs and the Tibetans with spying technology, ideological training, etc.).

Sidenote 1: I’m glad some of you Progressives have pulled back on your talk about violence.  I know I’m slow to resort to arms, but clearly, we should give our courts and our upcoming 2026 elections a chance.

Sidenote 2, for those who talked about raising arms: Did you support Hillary Clinton when she said that reversing Heller was a litmus test for any Supreme Court justice she would nominate?  If guns are forbidden, how would you counter an armed fascist regime?  In the 1930s, the Queen of the Netherlands introduced gun control, persuading the population that it would make them safe.  When the Nazis rolled in, they found a government list of all the guns in the country and went door-to-door knowing what to demand.  As a result, the Dutch underground had no guns.

4. In our society, most people believe what they want to believe.  We have short attention spans, cherry pick a piece of data or opinion that justifies our pre-conceived notions, and conclude that the evidence supports our bias even if it does not.  We believe the ends justify the means and criticize the other side for behavior we defend when our side does it.  We rationalize bad behavior with the argument that the “other side” did it first.

Sidenote 3: I was never a meaningful donor to Yale because I figured other non-profits needed my money more than Yale did.  But several years ago, I shifted my donations to the Buckley Institute (at a higher level than I’d given to Yale).  If you don’t think that Buckley ad is spot-on, I suggest you test whether you are in an echo chamber.  I agree with Jay, Ben Sasse is outstanding.  One of his earlier articles explained that the challenge in our society is not the extreme right vs. extreme left, but the two extremes against the middle.

Sidenote 4: For those of you who truly believe in democracy, how are you comfortable with Democrats investing heavily in Republican primaries to get their supposedly-feared Trumpists nominated?  How are you comfortable with the Democratic Party pulling major hoaxes in three consecutive presidential elections?  Neither party cares about democracy other than to the degree that it can be used to solidify their power.

5. Forrest Gump is the most upsetting movie I’ve seen.  I’ve never recovered from seeing scenes of Gump with President Kennedy and Marilyn Monroe.  When we lived in small towns, we knew who told the truth and who didn’t.  When our cities got larger and populations got more mobile, we relied on photos and recordings.  If we can’t trust pictures and recordings, how can civilization survive?
6. I’ve been flabbergasted to see every administration incentivize countries to develop nuclear weapons.  Instead of firmly stifling nuclear weapon development, we shower huge financial rewards on a country that develops them, in return for a promise to discontinue.  Why wouldn’t a ruler develop nuclear weapons when it causes enemies to restraint themselves, gives him/her more local support, and then becomes a tremendous economic success because of the bounties offered (sometimes more than once)?  “Existential threats” is a phrase du jour.  Does the nuclear war risk justify pessimism?
7. Biotech, AI, robotics, drones and other technologies encourage great hope, but bring tremendous downside risk that is hard to avoid.
8. Our society does not sufficiently build/encourage character, as partly alluded to above.  We don’t sufficiently respect religion.  (Note: I am agnostic, but I respect that religion builds character, despite some exceptions when religion is misused.)  We prefer to tear down our past heroes, rather than to acknowledge their humanity, with strengths and weaknesses.   We refer to athletes who cheat as “smart”. 
9. We haven’t had a president who tried to bring us together since Bill Clinton.  Both parties seem to have the same view of the USA: there are the far right and far left, one of which reliably supports us and the other will always oppose us.  In the middle, there is a lethargic, distracted group that don’t get actively involved.  So, the way to increase our power is to energize our supporters.  The best way to energize our supporters is to vilify the other side as immoral ogres.
10. It is much easier to lose freedoms than to recover freedoms.  Countries often lose their freedom because the public willingly accepts a dictator to rescue them from something bad.  That has contributed significantly to Trump’s success and may open the door to leftist totalitarianism in response.

It is possible to oppose an administration without painting all its voters as demons.  You can have respectful conversations and find common ground.

Note: I surprised I didn't mention #11 at least.

11. We are creating a huge financial burden for future generations that will crush our country.  Our huge deficit understates the problem greatly because of the unfunded liabilities of our entitlement programs, which are not included in the budget.

12.  Our tort system is out of control with large settlements that have significant economic repercussions.  For example, I have a heart loop recorder in my chest, not because my cardiologist thinks it is necessary, but apparently because his older associate advised him to do it for liability reasons.  (He was explaining to me why it wasn't necessary, then excused himself to chat with an associate and came recommending strongly that they to induce an arrhythmia and if they fail, insert a recorder.  Think how much tort causes in the development of drugs, chemical products such as fertilizers, etc.

13. Bad actors increase our costs tremendously for computer security, etc., precautions, etc.  And regulatory requirements (also intended to avoid bad actors) add even more overhead.  Politicians say they favor small business, but it is extremely difficult to run a small business.