Update on the Iran War

 Much as I dislike President Trump, his decision to attack Iran provides an opportunity for him to make a truly outstanding contribution to the world.  Nuclear weapon expansion should be thwarted whether by an ally or not.  Previous Presidents have inadvertently encouraged the spread of nuclear weapons.  It would be tremendous if f President Trump can end Iran’s nuclear ambitions.  It would be even better if he, or his successor, could leverage that into an agreement among existing nuclear powers to monitor for nuclear development, provide a short-range “cease, desist, and tear down” warning.  If the country does not stand down, their nuclear research site should be destroyed militarily.

If he could  stop Iran’s funding of terrorists that would add to the significant accomplishment.

Unfortunately, President Trump's handling of the war with Iran seems to have been deficient in the following ways:

• He has mismanaged our alliances resulting less international (and domestic) support for the war.
• His talk about destroying Iran’s civilization, taking them back to the Stone Ages, and attacking their power plants has made it harder for Iranian citizens to rise up against the regime.  Like almost everyone in the world, they know Trump can’t be trusted.
• I suspect he has caused concern for our Gulf allies by indicating that the USA and Iran might jointly charge tolls for ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz and indicating that he might make a deal with Iran that falls short of their expectations.
• He seemingly underestimated Iran’s willingness and ability to resist, making us vulnerable because they can build drones faster and more cheaply than we can defend against them.  (When the war started, I cited two concerns; a) that Iranian drones could outlast our defenses and b) that Trump was overconfident.)
• He has contributed to the impression that he is anxious to end the war quickly, which encourages Iranian resistance.

The media has served us poorly by stressing the rising price of gasoline but 

1) They hardly mentioning the risk of nuclear war. 

2) They haven't explained that China gets more than 25% of its oil from our Persian Gulf allies and 12% from Iraq, but only 14% from Iran.  However, 80% to 90% of Iran's oil exports go to China.  So, China is not anxious to favor Iran over the other Gulf states and Iran is unable to replace the oil China gets from those other Gulf states.  The blockade is an excellent way to fight Iran.

3) They haven't explained that Iran has limited ability to store oil.  Blocked from exporting oil, they will have to stop production.  Some experts believe they might have to stop production in as soon as two weeks after exports stop.  When oil wells are shut off, it can be difficult to resume production because of water and paraffin buildup and other potential problems.  This is another reason why the blockade of Iran's exports is an effective strategy.  It does not cause soldiers or civilians on either side to die (unless perhaps if Iran tries to evade the blockade).  It does not destroy infrastructure either.  It doesn't even expend significant munitions. 

The media, and the Democrats, stoke public reactions that encourage the Iranians to think they can outlast us.

Why We Should Support Ukraine (what you can do)

In the Budapest Memorandum (1994), Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in return for security assurances from Russia, the UK and the USA.  Russia violated the agreement, annexing Crimea in 2014 and invading the rest of Ukraine in 2022.  The UK and USA have done too little to defend Ukraine.  Below, I outline many reasons to support Ukraine.  First, here’s what you can do:

1. Make your opinion known to your politicians (Senators' URL protocol is www.Senator'sFamilyname.senate.com.  House URL protocol is https://FamilyName.house.gov/contact/)

Click Reinstate Russian Oil Sanctions to ask Congress to reinstate Russian oil sanctions.  Near the bottom of this message, you can see a political cartoon I created with AI that mocks us for crying about the price of gas while Ukrainians are experience true suffering.

Click Sanctioning Russia Act to send a letter, text or call politicians' offices to support this bill: HR2548 (154 sponsors) and S1241 (84 sponsors) are identical. Here you can find their summaries and sponsors: ttps://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2548 and https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1241. 

2. Donate.  We donate to https://www.razomforukraine.org/ and https://www.hopeinternational.org/.  Here is Razom’s 2025 Impact Report.  Here is Hope Internationsl's efforts in Ukraine: https://www.projecthope.org/region/europe/ukraine/     
3. Spread the word

 I surprisingly found 23 reasons why we should support Ukraine.  I divided into 4 categories which overlap: 1) Peace and Security; 2) Moral; 3) Economic; 4) Ukraine can win (or at least negotiate from strength).  My 20 sources are listed at the end.

Peace and security reasons (see also 10, 14, and 15)

1. To promote general peace in the world, we must dissuade aggression and violation of treaties.  (Russia has violated both Minsk Agreements as well as the Budapest memorandum. 
2. We must encourage countries to forebear nuclear weapons, instead of letting Ukraine be punished for having done so.
3. United, we stand; divided we fall.  If we let Ukraine fall, other allies (Baltic countries and Taiwan) may be next.
4. Ukraine is weakening our enemy and exposing Russia’s weakness and cruel and mercenary practices to the world, benefitting us indirectly.
5. Ukraine is teaching us new ways to fight war and developing weapons we need.
6. Ukraine provided direct expertise to help us defend against Iranian drones.  In return, we harmed Ukraine by suspending sanctions on Russian gas.
7. Ukraine is stymieing Russia without USA troops being engaged.
8. The war in Ukraine has helped focus Europe more on its defense.

Moral reasons

9. Russian is attacking civilians, infrastructure, nuclear facilities, etc. and has abducted 20,000 children.  The brave Ukrainians deserve support.
10. Russian blocks Ukraine grain exports, increasing food insecurity in Africa and Asia.  In 2021, Ukraine was the world’s breadbasket, producing 10% of the world’s wheat, 15% of its corn, 13% of its barley, and 50% of its sunflower oil.          
11. Doing the morally right thing protects us.  As Martin Niemoller said: “First, they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Socialist.  Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Trade Unionist.  Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Jew.  Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”
12. If you’re an environmentalist, you should value that sanctions divert gas production from Russia to the USA, where stricter regulations reduce the use of methane, through policies with better measurement and validation.  Thus, our gas production is much better for the world.

Economic reasons

13. Up to 90% of our aid to Ukraine is spent in the USA, creating USA jobs in all 50 states (including suppliers).  Substantial oversight assures the money is properly spent.  So, our aid is not exposed to corruption in Ukraine.  While Ukraine has significant internal corruption, it has improved its ranking from 122^nd in 2021 prior to Russia’s invasion to 104^th in 2025.  Corruption typically increases during wartime.
14. Ukraine has 5% of the world’s reserves of lithium, graphite, manganese, titanium, gallium, nickel and other critical minerals.  It also has reserves of the 17 rare earth minerals.
15. In April, 2025, the Ukraine–United States Mineral Resources Agreement created a Reconstruction Investment Fund to develop Ukraine’s critical mineral, oil, and gas sectors.
16. Sanctions help our economy as nations which bought gas from Russia might instead buy it from us.

Amazingly, Ukraine might win (or at least we should help them negotiate from strength)

17. Russian soldiers and mercenaries have incurred 1.3 million casualties, about ¼ of its pre-war military..
18. Russia’s major attacks have gained only 50-230 feet per day. 
19. Russia is spending an unsustainable 50% of its budget on the war.
20. The Hungarian election of Peter Magyar is likely to unblock the EU’s intended $100 billion loan to Ukraine and may result in the EU giving $230 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
21. A high-powered international strategy expert suggested that,  by helping the Gulf states defend against Iranian attacks, Ukraine has positioned itself to advise them on their defense in return for significant financial support.
22. The USA forces Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back by not allowing it to hit targets in Russia (without prior approval by the USA). Ukraine can do better if we don’t restrict it.
23. Ukraine soldiers have better morale, and the citizenry supports the war.  Only 17% of Ukrainians would agree to a treaty based on Russian demands.  67% support Zelenskyy.
24. More than 95% of Ukraine’s drones and 60% of its battlefield equipment are manufactured in Ukraine.

I created this political cartoon (using AI) to show the difference between our focus on short term costs and inconveniences compared to the suffering of brave Ukrainians.

Sources:

1. Razom reports
2. Ukraine’s Top Drone Commander Wants to Bleed Russia’s Army Dry
3. https://www.hudson.org/defense-strategy/symposium-why-us-needs-help-ukraine-defeat-russia
4. https://www.usglc.org/the-importance-of-u-s-assistance-to-ukraine/
5. https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/what-the-us-has-to-gain-from-supporting-ukraine
6. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/four-reasons-why-supporting-ukraine-good-investment
7. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine#:~:text=To%20finance%20the%20Ukraine%20war%2C%20the%20Kremlin,its%20budget%20on%20the%20armed%20forces%2C%20the
8. https://www.dw.com/en/five-facts-on-grain-and-the-war-in-ukraine/a-62601467
9. https://spectrum.ieee.org/ukraine-rare-earth-minerals#:~:text=Ukraine%20will%20contribute%2050%20percent,attempt%20to%20secure%20stable%20supplies.
10. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/28/mapping-ukraines-rare-earth-and-critical-minerals#:~:text=What%20minerals%20does%20Ukraine%20have,at%20an%20estimated%20500%2C000%20tonnes.
11. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20le8jn282o
12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93United_States_Mineral_Resources_Agreement
13. https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/russias-disregard-nuclear-safety-and-security-ukraine#:~:text=OCTOBER%202022:%20Russia%20conducted%20air,infrastructure%20heedless%20of%20the%20repercussions.
14. https://theconversation.com/corruption-and-war-two-scourges-that-feed-off-each-other-199265#:~:text=Second%2C%20corruption%20leads%20to%20a,threatened%20and%20even%20sometimes%20murdered%E2%80%A6
15. https://www.progressivepolicy.org/the-role-of-natural-gas-in-reducing-asias-greenhouse-gas-emissions/#:~:text=For%20example%2C%20Russia%20and%20the,emissions%20than%20does%20Chinese%20coal.
16. https://www.bushcenter.org/publications/ukraine-can-still-win-the-war-russia-started-with-u-s-and-european-help
17. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/06/russias-january-budget-deficit-hits-nearly-half-of-annual-target-a91885
18. https://cepa.org/article/dont-let-russia-fool-you-about-the-minsk-agreements/
19. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/13/peter-magyar-election-win-hungary-eu-ukraine-russia#:~:text=Magyar's%20predecessor%20made%20no%20secret,money%20could%20finally%20be%20disbursed.
20. https://www.courthousenews.com/the-300-billion-hostage-europes-high-stakes-gamble-with-russias-frozen-fortune/#:~:text=March%2013%2C%202026-,The%20$300%20billion%20hostage:%20Europe's%20high%2Dstakes%20gamble%20with%20Russia's,murky%20%E2%80%94%20and%20could%20backfire%20spectacularly.&text=File%20photo%20of%20a%20briefcase,standing%20rules%20of%20international%20finance?
21. Webinar presented by Eliot Cohen for No Labels members, 2026-04-22.