10 (Obvious?) Lessons to Learn from Russia’s attack on Ukraine

2022-07-10 update (but not new thoughts).  2023-10-15: one new item regarding how Biden caused Putin to think he could attack Ukraine with impunity.  

We have not (at least not publicly) supported Ukraine in controlling its airspace or shipping routes nor in being able to strike points in Russia.  Perhaps surreptitiously, we have done so, which would be a good way to do it. 

I don’t think I have to explain the importance of air space and shipping routes.

If the Ukraine can't hit targets in Russia, the Ukraine can defend itself only by destroying its country and putting its citizens at risk.  Furthermore, there is little deterrence for Russia if their sites are safe.  And Russian citizens are less likely to understand what is going on if Ukraine can't hit Russian targets. 

The Ukrainians are not only defending themselves, they are defending many European countries.  We and Europe should help them win the war, rather than hamstringing them with likely increased Ukrainian casualties and compromised territorial integrity at the end.

Earlier I updated 4i, 10b and 10f.

Here are 10 lessons to learn from Russia’s wanton attack on Ukraine.  Unfortunately, we need to learn these lessons over-and-over again, which suggests that our education system, media and politicians need to improve significantly in this regard.

1. We believe what we want to believe; we must get out of our echo chambers.
2. “Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.”  (Lord Acton, paraphrasing earlier statements by others.)
3. Nuclear proliferation must be resisted more forcefully.
4. To secure peace, it is important to project strength.
5. Short-term destruction of the coal, oil and gas industries is not a good idea.
6. Spending on guns vs. butter must be balanced.
7. CNN and media attention impact history while reporting it.
8. Democracies must band together to protect each other.
9. The USA is a good country, albeit with flaws that can be addressed.
10. Too little, too late is insufficient.

1.      We believe what we want to believe; we must get out of our echo chambers.

a.      This problem seems to be increasingly widespread and endemic.  We must seek alternate ideas and consider them respectfully. 

b.      Many Presidents and many media commentators misread Putin despite ample evidence (Chechnya; Georgia; Crimea I and II and continual statements about his intent to re-build the Russian empire).  They believed what they wanted to believe then.  Now they don’t want to believe/admit they were wrong, so they claim Putin has changed.

c.      Kudos to Madeline Albright for being an exception, admitting she was wrong to mock Mitt Romney in 2012 when he said “Russia is, without question, our number one geopolitical foe.”  Certainly, you could disagree as to #1, but President Obama, VP Biden and Secretary of State Albright skewered him for what appeared to me to be political reasons but may have been due to amazing, serious naïvete. 

d.      A friend suggested, prior to the invasion, that an agreement should be reached giving Russia the then-contested Ukrainian provinces.  When I objected that such an action would whet Putin’s appetite for further aggression, he dismissed my comment, saying the domino theory had been disproven in Viet Nam.  His comment makes no sense but was comfortable for him because it supported what he wanted to believe.  Saying that Viet Nam disproved the “domino theory” is like saying if a basketball player misses a shot, she will never make a shot.  Furthermore, the Viet Nam domino theory related to guerilla communist movements; I was talking about the actions of a bully.

e.      The “Speak Your Truth” movement started admirably, encouraging people to have the courage to speak up.  Alas, it morphed into encouraging people to tenaciously cling to distorted views, as whatever idea you might come up with was blessed as your “truth”.

f.       Throughout my life, I’ve heard people say “all human lives have equal value”.  But the overwhelming majority clearly don’t practice what they preach.  They are virtue-signaling, perhaps mostly to themselves.  I’ve asked people if their neighbor’s life is as important as their family’s life; if the life of someone across town is as important as their neighbor’s life; if the life of a person living in a far-away USA state is as important as the life of someone living across town; and if the life of someone in another country is as important as the life of a USA citizen.  Clearly almost everyone puts a higher value on some lives than others.  The Ukraine situation highlights that inconsistency:

                                          i.     Most people consider Ukrainian lives expendable to keep the rest of us from being exposed to the risk of WW III.

                                         ii.     The lives of Russian soldiers and the losses their families will grieve rate even less concern.

2.      “Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.”  (Lord Acton, paraphrasing earlier statements by others.)

a.      See my earlier blog about the importance of Separation of Powers.  Sadly, too many of us support centralized power because they think it is more efficient and/or more fair or because they believe that centralized power will produce desirable political outcomes.

b.      As a young person, I strongly subscribed to the “more efficient and more fair” perspective, but I’ve learned that I was naïve in that regard.  Benjamin Disraeli said “A man who is not a liberal at 16 has no heart.  A man who is not a conservative at 60 has no head.” (Anselme Batbie is the first person documented to have made such an observation; George Clemenceau is another.)  I certainly have observed that the idealism of my youth, while admirable, did not lead to conclusions that would most benefit mankind.

c.      Term limits is an attempt to reduce this impact.  Although I appreciate the intent, I have a preferred approach.

d.      The idea of packing the Supreme Court is a cardinal example of undermining Separation of Powers.  It is one of many “slippery slopes.”

3.      Nuclear proliferation must be resisted more forcefully

a.      Please see my earlier blog in which I explained how our governments have encouraged countries to develop nuclear weapons.  If a country develops nuclear weapons, we offer huge enticements to discontinue.  The return on investment is attractive.  Meanwhile their military strength is recognized by other countries and their leaders can strut in local politics.

b.      Now, we’ve spotlighted that countries should never agree to surrender their nuclear weapons.  In 1994, the USA, UK and Russia convinced Ukraine to surrender their nuclear weapons in return for guarantees that they would not threaten Ukraine sovereignty.  Russia has now flagrantly broken that treaty.  The USA and UK position is that they have not violated the treaty and did not promise, in the treaty, to provide defense if a party violated the treaty.  The USA and UK position is consistent with the treaty wording, but why should a country surrender nukes in the future?

c.      Nuclear war is clearly an existential threat.  World leadership should dramatically alter its approach, as per my blog on the topic.

4.      To secure peace, it is important to project strength.

a.      Putin invaded Ukraine because he had a reasonable expectation that he would get away with it.  Excuse me for addressing this at length below.  It seems important because some people with whom I’ve discussed this issue have clearly significantly misunderstood the image that the world has had of the USA.

b.      The US government, led by President Biden, and the West, in general, projected weakness.  We led Putin to believe he could invade Ukraine at little cost.  Shame on us.

c.      To be fair, Biden was handicapped coming into office by President Obama and his involvement in that administration, by President Trump (cuts both ways; in some ways an advantage) and by some of his own past actions.

d.      Campaigning for President the first time, then-Senator Obama urged mediation when Putin invaded Georgia while Senator McCain took consistently stronger stances against Russia.  At the time, Obama’s position did not stand out as particularly weak, but with his subsequent actions, the pattern became clear.

e.      The “Obama administration deferred to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s concern that lethal-arms assistance to Ukraine would only prolong a war that that country was bound to lose, and it refused to provide such support.”

f.       President Obama reacted mildly to Russia’s incursion into Crimea.

g.      He declared a “red line” in Syria, then decided he did not want to enforce it (he pretended to change his mind as to his authority, so he could blame Congress for not enforcing it).  Under his watch, USA influence in Syria dropped and Russian influence grew dramatically.

h.      The above comments d-g should not generate much disagreement from readers.  However, some people might disagree with my belief that President Obama showed weakness relative to Iran, Cuba and by undermining Israel, etc. and that candidate Biden indicated that he would resume some of those positions.  [Disclosure: I voted for Barack Obama the first time he ran for President, but not the second time.  I voted for Biden in 2020.]

i.       President Trump handicapped Biden and encouraged Putin by disrupting NATO politically and with harmful tariffs.  He espoused what sounded like an isolationist policy.  (Trump’s actual behavior was more volatile, not consistently isolationist, which I think Putin recognized.  Trump fired missiles at Russians twice in Syria, once in combination with the French and British.)  However, Trump’s behavior made Biden’s election very well-received.  NATO welcomed a President who would bring them together.  Trump’s demand that NATO countries honor their commitment to spend 2% of their budget on defense made it easier for Biden to re-build relations but to insist on the 2% (Biden abandoned the 2% as far as I know, but I may be wrong).  Biden was harmed in that even if he proved to be a strong ally for NATO members, Trump caused NATO members to fear that a future president might shy away from NATO again.

j.       Note: Biden has done a good job of bringing NATO back together, but Putin seems to have stimulated the NATO rapprochement more than Biden did. When Biden abandoned Afghanistan, he did not coordinate with NATO allies who were supporting our efforts.  He also has kept damaging tariffs in place.

k.      Biden may have been hurt by his past, but I am not expert in that regard.  Gates said that Biden was wrong on foreign policy a remarkable percentage of the time.  Even if that were accurate, “wrong” does not necessarily mean “weak”.  Biden has been criticized for not wanting to attack Osama bin Laden’s compound.  Not having been involved in the discussion, I can’t criticize that position, but it may have contributed to Putin thinking Biden is weak.  (Even sound decisions may be (mis)-interpreted to be weakness.)

l.       Biden’s precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan certainly encouraged Putin.  Biden’s repeated statements that he took full responsibility (while blaming the Afghans, Trump, and his own staff) exposed a very weak leader.  When the Bay of Pigs invasion failed, President Kennedy took responsibility.  He did not try to shift it to the victims or his staff.  Although the Bay of Pigs plan was developed in the Eisenhower administration, JFK was silent about that, taking responsibility.  President Biden said Trump’s agreement with the Taliban bound his hands, but the agreement was dependent on conditions the Taliban did not meet.  It was Biden, not Trump, who decided to waive those requirements.  Furthermore, Biden actually did change the agreement, delaying its date, despite later saying that he couldn’t change it.  [Disclosure: I did not support Trump’s agreement with the Taliban; excluding the Afghan government from the discussions seemed to me to be a bad idea.]

m.    Biden promoted a budget overwhelmingly tilted toward “butter”, not “guns”.  The European democracies have done that for a long time, increasingly relying upon protection from the USA.  The USA has underfunded the military for a while.

n.      Demands to de-fund the police and the presumption that police were guilty when incidents occurred were significant to foreign observers.  We were unwilling to defend our cities from lawless looting.  If the USA lets lawless people take over Seattle, why would Putin think the USA would defend Kiev?

o.      Biden focused his administration on climate change and choosing leadership based on identity not just capability.  Climate change is a real issue and I applaud some of Biden’s steps, such as procuring environmental vehicles for the government.  Asking the military to assess and consider climate change is a good idea, but should be done quietly to avoid the impression that Biden was taking his eye off security.  For political reasons, Biden preferred to spotlight it, which I thought was not a good idea.  If he wanted to spotlight it, he should have at least kept a public focus on security as well, but he did not.  People like to say that perception is reality.  I don’t agree.  The perception that Biden was focusing the military on climate change may not have been reality.  But perception impacts reality!

p.      Clearly, we have many people of minority races, religions, sexual preferences, etc. who are outstanding.  Because their talents have not been recognized in the past, it makes sense that they would comprise a higher percentage of appointments than their percentage of the population (this could be partially offset by their lack of experience if they have been held back by prejudice).  Here, again, President Biden’s approach may not have reflected reduced concern about competency, but it added to an impression that the USA is weak.

q.      Strongly favoring the left wing of his party, Biden strengthened Putin’s hand by his positions related to coal, oil and gas.  He reversed the USA’s opposition to Nord Stream 2 and lifted sanctions against one of the construction companies, thereby undermining Ukraine as well as helping Putin make Europe more dependent on Russian gas.  He declared that he wanted to put the coal industry out of business and also warred with the USA oil and gas industry.  He then begged other countries to boost production of energy that he was trying to quell in the USA.  Why did it make sense to shift energy production (and jobs) to other countries whose industries pollute more than ours?  Why did it make sense to undermine our security and ability to wean Europe off Russian oil?  Clearly, President Biden put domestic politics (catering to the left wing of his party) above sound practices.  Of course, that’s going to encourage Vladimir Putin to attack Ukraine!

He publicly contradicted President Zelensky's claim that NATO was ready to accept Ukrainian membership.  (Inserted on 15Oct23; quoting from Walter Russell Mead in the Wall Street Journal of October 10, 2023.

r.       As mentioned in my blog about voting rights, President Biden’s rhetoric has continually divided us rather than bringing us together.  I recognize that most other people who voted for President Biden will not agree, but I think that gets back to point #1.

s.      When Putin amassed his forces, President Biden immediately encouraged him by emphasizing that the USA would not defend Ukraine.  Does anyone really think that President Biden’s declarations that the USA would not get involved somehow discouraged Putin from attacking Ukraine?

t.       President Biden even made the horrendous mistake of indicating that Russia might make a “slight incursion” that might warrant a softer reaction.

u.      President Biden and the West have done an excellent job of creating tough sanctions, but only after the fact.  Likely, President Biden would not have been able to convince NATO allies to take a strong stance sooner.  Likely, he did not want to do so himself either.  What possibly could Putin have expected?  Any intelligent person other than an extremely cautious person would have expected that the threatened sanctions would be weak.

v.      President Biden did a very good job of exposing what Putin was preparing to do, but his wording was injudicious.  He kept saying "Putin is going to attack” rather than saying that “Putin has marshalled his forces in a way that would support an attack”.  His choice of wording would have made Putin look weak if he backed down.  Putin is not someone who wants to be viewed as backing down.

5.      Short-term destruction of the coal, oil and gas industries is not a good idea.

a.      I’ve explained this above in 4p, so I won’t re-hash it.  But it is an important strategic position hence deserves to be highlighted.

b.      It is worth understanding that I have been an environmentalist for at least 60 years and have lived my life, done advocacy and invested consistently with those principles.  I’d love to see renewables replace coal, oil and gas and have worked to help that to occur.  So, when I argue against the left’s vendetta on conventional energy, it is not an attack on environmentalism.  It is simply a call for sanity.

c.      I have always feared radioactive nuclear waste.  However, I’ve grew to recognize that nuclear might be a good transitional source of energy.  And nuclear fusion avoids the risk of radioactive waste or at least hugely reduces it. 

6.      Spending on guns vs. butter must be balanced

a.      As noted above, President Biden over-emphasized (in my opinion) butter over guns.  It is clearly a tough issue.

b.      Note: I have mixed feelings about gun control.  Hunters don’t need Uzis and it makes sense to restrict gun rights for stalkers.  Other restrictions may also make sense.  But I am haunted by the Dutch, who put in gun control immediately before WWII.  When the Germans rolled into the Netherlands, they found a government list of the guns that were owned, allowing them to go door-to-door to confiscate those guns.  What if Ukrainian citizens were not allowed to have guns now or if Russia got their hands on a list?  People often tell me “that could never happen here" (on issues other than guns as well as related to guns) but such attitudes increase our risk.

7.      CNN and media attention can impact history as well as reporting it

a.      I remember CNN reporting from Tiananmen Square in 1989. It was an incredibly revolutionary moment (please excuse the pun).  For people around the world to see what was going on in real time was incredible.

b.      When CNN showed Boris Yeltsin getting on that tank, I realized that CNN’s presence not only is educational, it actually changes history.  Yeltsin’s efforts might have ended differently without CNN.

c.      Now in Ukraine, CNN’s efforts have made the world more aware and more united in opposition to Russia’s efforts.  CNN has undermined Russia’s disinformation campaign.  The question now is “How long will the world’s resolve last?”

8.      Democracies must band together to protect each other

a.      Martin Niemoller said it more effectively than I can: “First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Socialist.  Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Trade Unionist.  Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— because I was not a Jew.  Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”

b.      I made this point in my January email to my Congresswoman, Sharice Davids (see my January 22nd blog).

c.   Ukrainian President Zelensky has argued effectively that Ukrainians are fighting to protect democracy everywhere.

9.      The USA is a good country, albeit with flaws that can be addressed

a.      I’ve never been an “America, love it or leave it” person.  Patriotism includes helping the USA live up to its ideals.

b.      Clearly, it is important for us to understand our history and our weaknesses.  A person or country who does not acknowledge its weaknesses handicaps its ability to improve and a person or country which does not acknowledge its past mistakes is likely to repeat them.

c.      Nonetheless, we have reason to be proud of our country.  Our constitution and principles totally changed the world, putting people in charge of the government and, as I’ve explained, elevating the most critical principle: separation of powers.  While we are flawed, we’ve improved significantly.

d.      I believe we can improve further.  It is healthier for us to identify as USA citizens and work for our common interest rather than to band according to various subcategories, focus on real and imagined victimhood and fighting on behalf of those subcategories.

e.      My local newspaper (the KC Star) published an editorial calling upon those who oppose pandemic restrictions to calm their "tyranny" rhetoric, recognizing the difference between the USA and Russian or Chinese tyranny.  I agree, but it was unfortunately characteristic that the KC Star would observe such lack of appreciation of our country only on the right and would ignore it on the left.  To achieve their goal of bringing us together, they should have been non-partisan.

f.      It is clear to me that I should have done more to help the USA improve but I sadly seem to have a better track record in this regard than most people.  (I say “sadly” because it would be much better if most people had made efforts greater than mine.)  My point here is not to brag but simply to make clear that I am not an apologist for improper behavior.

10.   Too little, too late is insufficient. 

a.      I fear that the support we are providing to the Ukrainians is “too little; too late”.  As President Zelensky said, strong sanctions on Russia for gobbling up the Ukraine do not help the Ukraine, as it will have already been sacrificed.

b.      I recognize the counterargument that supporting the Ukraine more strongly could have enflamed Russia’s fears or at least have enabled a Russian disinformation campaign.  But what friend tells you that you aren't going to be admitted into NATO because doing so would encourage Russia to attack you, then says they won't defend you if Russia attacks you anyway?

c.      Such issues need to be discussed more fully in our government circles and by non-government citizens (see #1). 

d.      Defensive weaponry may have been a good solution.

e.      A non-aggression pact may have helped.

f.       Will the Western resolve hold up?  Once the shooting stops, many people and countries are likely to want to end sanctions.  Some will want to end sanctions to benefit their economies.  Others will say the sanctions have no purpose at that time.  Still others will argue that we need to end the sanctions so that we have the threat of re-applying them if Putin attacks another country.  These arguments miss the point: The sanctions were widely and appropriately characterized as a "punishment"; they were not intended to protect Ukraine; they were intended to dissuade future attacks.  If they turn-out to be short-term sanctions, their deterrent value will be reduced.  I agree that they should not be permanent, but a strong case could be made that they will continue until Ukraine is again free.  Practically speaking, that seems very unlikely.  So what is the proper sentence for such aggression and killing?   Ten years does not sound unreasonable and could be a strong deterrent.  However, I fear our weak-kneed Western "leadership" will abandon peace efforts again by eliminating the sanctions relatively quickly.

g.      I know I don’t have all the answers.